Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings
Ranked by EPA per Dropback. Qualified: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 2024 regular season.
2024 Leaders
EPA per Dropback
- 1Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens+0.36
- 2Josh Allen Buffalo Bills+0.30
- 3Jared Goff Detroit Lions+0.30
- 4Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins+0.22
- 5Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers+0.21
ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)
- 1Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals+41.3
- 2Jared Goff Detroit Lions+31.8
- 3Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers+23.4
- 4Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks+22.7
- 5Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins+19.1
NFL Passer Rating
- 1Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens119.6
- 2Jared Goff Detroit Lions111.8
- 3Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals108.5
- 4Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers106.8
- 5Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles103.7
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- 1Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens9.38
- 2Jared Goff Detroit Lions8.06
- 3Josh Allen Buffalo Bills7.96
- 4Derek Carr New Orleans Saints7.57
- 5Jordan Love Green Bay Packers7.51
Completion %
- 1Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins72.9%
- 2Jared Goff Detroit Lions72.4%
- 3Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers71.4%
- 4Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals70.6%
- 5Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks70.4%
Passing Yards
- 1Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals4,918
- 2Jared Goff Detroit Lions4,629
- 3Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers4,500
- 4Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks4,320
- 5Sam Darnold Minnesota Vikings4,319
Passing Touchdowns
- 1Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals43
- 2Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers41
- 3Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens41
- 4Jared Goff Detroit Lions37
- 5Sam Darnold Minnesota Vikings35
Success Rate
- 1Jared Goff Detroit Lions54.2%
- 2Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins53.4%
- 3Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens53.3%
- 4Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers52.2%
- 5Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals51.9%
Game-Winning Drives
- 1Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs7
- 2Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks4
- 3Jared Goff Detroit Lions4
- 4Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders4
- 5Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams4
All 2024 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 36% chance+0.64
Missed 5-yard throw, 79% chance−0.79
2024 ACE Rankings: Quarterbacks
| # | Quarterback | Team | Cmp-Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 460-652 | +6.3 | +41.3 |
| 2 | Jared Goff | DET | 390-539 | +5.9 | +31.8 |
| 3 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 407-570 | +4.1 | +23.4 |
| 4 | Geno Smith | SEA | 407-578 | +3.9 | +22.7 |
| 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 291-399 | +4.8 | +19.1 |
| 6 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 316-474 | +3.6 | +16.9 |
| 7 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 331-480 | +2.9 | +14.0 |
| 8 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 248-361 | +3.7 | +13.4 |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 392-581 | +2.3 | +13.4 |
| 10 | Sam Darnold | MIN | 361-545 | +2.4 | +13.1 |
| 11 | Brock Purdy | SF | 300-455 | +2.6 | +11.6 |
| 12 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 332-504 | +2.3 | +11.5 |
| 13 | Kirk Cousins | ATL | 303-453 | +1.9 | +8.6 |
| 14 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 372-541 | +1.2 | +6.4 |
| 15 | Russell Wilson | PIT | 214-336 | +1.7 | +5.5 |
| 16 | Derek Carr | NO | 189-279 | +1.5 | +4.3 |
| 17 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 340-517 | +0.8 | +4.0 |
| 18 | Joe Flacco | IND | 162-248 | +1.6 | +3.9 |
| 19 | Drake Maye | NE | 225-338 | +0.9 | +3.1 |
| 20 | Jordan Love | GB | 268-425 | +0.6 | +2.7 |
| 21 | Bo Nix | DEN | 376-567 | +0.3 | +1.5 |
| 22 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 185-286 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 23 | Gardner Minshew | LV | 203-306 | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| 24 | Josh Allen | BUF | 307-483 | -0.3 | -1.5 |
| 25 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 216-341 | -0.8 | -2.8 |
| 26 | Will Levis | TEN | 190-301 | -1.3 | -3.9 |
| 27 | Mac Jones | JAX | 171-262 | -1.7 | -4.5 |
| 28 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | 154-243 | -2.2 | -5.3 |
| 29 | Jameis Winston | CLE | 181-296 | -2.0 | -5.8 |
| 30 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 336-532 | -1.2 | -6.1 |
| 31 | Bryce Young | CAR | 234-384 | -2.0 | -7.5 |
| 32 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 172-284 | -3.2 | -8.9 |
| 33 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 351-562 | -2.0 | -11.2 |
| 34 | Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | 368-584 | -2.4 | -14.1 |
| 35 | Cooper Rush | DAL | 187-308 | -6.3 | -19.5 |
| 36 | Anthony Richardson | IND | 126-264 | -11.8 | -30.9 |
2024 ACE Rankings: Teams
| # | Team | Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 651 | +6.3 | +41.3 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 548 | +5.9 | +32.5 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 570 | +4.1 | +23.6 |
| 4 | Miami Dolphins | 587 | +3.5 | +20.5 |
| 5 | Washington Commanders | 522 | +3.9 | +20.5 |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks | 591 | +3.2 | +18.9 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 472 | +3.7 | +17.5 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 447 | +3.5 | +15.5 |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 547 | +2.6 | +14.2 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 598 | +2.3 | +14.0 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Chargers | 507 | +2.2 | +11.2 |
| 12 | San Francisco 49ers | 527 | +1.9 | +10.1 |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers | 479 | +1.7 | +8.2 |
| 14 | Arizona Cardinals | 542 | +1.3 | +6.9 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 496 | +1.4 | +6.7 |
| 16 | Atlanta Falcons | 555 | +0.8 | +4.3 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Rams | 558 | +0.6 | +3.5 |
| 18 | Denver Broncos | 569 | +0.5 | +2.6 |
| 19 | New England Patriots | 527 | +0.0 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Buffalo Bills | 519 | -0.7 | -3.8 |
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | 527 | -1.2 | -6.4 |
| 22 | Las Vegas Raiders | 630 | -1.3 | -8.5 |
| 23 | Carolina Panthers | 547 | -1.8 | -9.9 |
| 24 | Houston Texans | 569 | -1.8 | -10.0 |
| 25 | Chicago Bears | 562 | -2.1 | -11.7 |
| 26 | New York Jets | 607 | -1.9 | -11.8 |
| 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 545 | -2.5 | -13.4 |
| 28 | New York Giants | 586 | -3.0 | -17.7 |
| 29 | New Orleans Saints | 550 | -3.7 | -20.6 |
| 30 | Dallas Cowboys | 634 | -3.6 | -22.9 |
| 31 | Indianapolis Colts | 511 | -5.2 | -26.8 |
| 32 | Cleveland Browns | 660 | -4.3 | -28.4 |
Quarterback Rankings, All Qualified Quarterbacks
| Rk | Player | Team | GS | Cmp-Att | Yds | TD | INT | Rate | ANY/A | ACE | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 17 | 316-474 | 4,172 | 41 | 4 | 119.6 | 9.38 | +16.9 | +0.36 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | BUF | 16 | 307-483 | 3,731 | 28 | 6 | 101.4 | 7.96 | -1.5 | +0.30 |
| 3 | Jared Goff | DET | 17 | 390-539 | 4,629 | 37 | 12 | 111.8 | 8.06 | +31.8 | +0.30 |
| 4 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 11 | 291-399 | 2,867 | 19 | 7 | 101.4 | 6.61 | +19.1 | +0.22 |
| 5 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 17 | 407-570 | 4,500 | 41 | 16 | 106.8 | 7.13 | +23.4 | +0.21 |
| 6 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 12 | 331-480 | 3,568 | 25 | 9 | 100.1 | 6.50 | +14.0 | +0.19 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 17 | 460-652 | 4,918 | 43 | 9 | 108.5 | 7.28 | +41.3 | +0.19 |
| 8 | Brock Purdy | SF | 15 | 300-455 | 3,864 | 20 | 12 | 96.1 | 7.34 | +11.6 | +0.19 |
| 9 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 16 | 248-361 | 2,903 | 18 | 5 | 103.7 | 6.93 | +13.4 | +0.17 |
| 10 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 16 | 392-581 | 3,928 | 26 | 11 | 93.5 | 6.02 | +13.4 | +0.16 |
| 11 | Derek Carr | NO | 10 | 189-279 | 2,145 | 15 | 5 | 101.0 | 7.57 | +4.3 | +0.16 |
| 12 | Jordan Love | GB | 15 | 268-425 | 3,389 | 25 | 11 | 96.7 | 7.51 | +2.7 | +0.15 |
| 13 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 17 | 372-541 | 3,851 | 21 | 11 | 93.5 | 6.23 | +6.4 | +0.15 |
| 14 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 17 | 332-504 | 3,870 | 23 | 3 | 101.7 | 7.25 | +11.5 | +0.14 |
| 15 | Sam Darnold | MIN | 17 | 361-545 | 4,319 | 35 | 12 | 102.5 | 6.99 | +13.1 | +0.11 |
| 16 | Bo Nix | DEN | 17 | 376-567 | 3,775 | 29 | 12 | 93.3 | 6.12 | +1.5 | +0.09 |
| 17 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 16 | 340-517 | 3,762 | 20 | 8 | 93.7 | 6.59 | +4.0 | +0.07 |
| 18 | Geno Smith | SEA | 17 | 407-578 | 4,320 | 21 | 15 | 93.2 | 5.93 | +22.7 | +0.07 |
| 19 | Kirk Cousins | ATL | 14 | 303-453 | 3,508 | 18 | 16 | 88.6 | 6.13 | +8.6 | +0.05 |
| 20 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 10 | 172-284 | 2,045 | 11 | 7 | 85.2 | 5.99 | -8.9 | +0.03 |
| 21 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | 7 | 154-243 | 1,612 | 8 | 4 | 86.7 | 5.97 | -5.3 | +0.03 |
| 22 | Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | 17 | 368-584 | 3,897 | 28 | 11 | 90.5 | 5.87 | -14.1 | +0.02 |
| 23 | Drake Maye | NE | 11 | 225-338 | 2,276 | 15 | 10 | 88.1 | 5.10 | +3.1 | +0.02 |
| 24 | Russell Wilson | PIT | 11 | 214-336 | 2,482 | 16 | 5 | 95.6 | 6.39 | +5.5 | +0.02 |
| 25 | Joe Flacco | IND | 11 | 162-248 | 1,761 | 12 | 7 | 90.5 | 5.88 | +3.9 | +0.02 |
| 26 | Mac Jones | JAX | 7 | 171-262 | 1,672 | 8 | 8 | 80.5 | 4.97 | -4.5 | +0.00 |
| 27 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 16 | 336-532 | 3,727 | 20 | 12 | 87.0 | 5.44 | -6.1 | -0.01 |
| 28 | Bryce Young | CAR | 8 | 234-384 | 2,403 | 15 | 9 | 82.2 | 5.11 | -7.5 | -0.02 |
| 29 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 8 | 185-286 | 1,978 | 11 | 8 | 86.0 | 5.62 | +0.0 | -0.02 |
| 30 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 17 | 351-562 | 3,541 | 20 | 6 | 87.8 | 5.09 | -11.2 | -0.03 |
| 31 | Jameis Winston | CLE | 9 | 181-296 | 2,121 | 13 | 12 | 80.6 | 5.35 | -5.8 | -0.06 |
| 32 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 10 | 216-341 | 2,070 | 8 | 7 | 79.4 | 4.71 | -2.8 | -0.07 |
| 33 | Cooper Rush | DAL | 8 | 187-308 | 1,844 | 12 | 5 | 83.8 | 5.50 | -19.5 | -0.08 |
| 34 | Anthony Richardson | IND | 6 | 126-264 | 1,814 | 8 | 12 | 61.6 | 4.74 | -30.9 | -0.10 |
| 35 | Gardner Minshew | LV | 10 | 203-306 | 2,013 | 9 | 10 | 81.0 | 4.71 | -0.8 | -0.12 |
| 36 | Will Levis | TEN | 6 | 190-301 | 2,091 | 13 | 12 | 81.4 | 4.61 | -3.9 | -0.16 |
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