Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2023 NFL Quarterback Rankings
Ranked by EPA per Dropback. Qualified: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 2023 regular season.
2023 Leaders
EPA per Dropback
- 1Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers+0.32
- 2Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys+0.22
- 3Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins+0.20
- 4Josh Allen Buffalo Bills+0.19
- 5Jordan Love Green Bay Packers+0.14
ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)
- 1Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys+28.9
- 2Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers+25.9
- 3Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins+23.9
- 4Josh Allen Buffalo Bills+19.6
- 5Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings+19.5
NFL Passer Rating
- 1Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers113.0
- 2Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys105.9
- 3Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings103.8
- 4Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens102.7
- 5Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins101.1
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- 1Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers9.01
- 2Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins7.48
- 3C.J. Stroud Houston Texans7.47
- 4Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens7.34
- 5Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys7.28
Completion %
- 1Jake Browning Cincinnati Bengals70.4%
- 2Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys69.5%
- 3Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings69.5%
- 4Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers69.4%
- 5Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins69.3%
Passing Yards
- 1Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins4,624
- 2Jared Goff Detroit Lions4,575
- 3Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys4,516
- 4Josh Allen Buffalo Bills4,306
- 5Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers4,280
Passing Touchdowns
- 1Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys36
- 2Jordan Love Green Bay Packers32
- 3Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers31
- 4Jared Goff Detroit Lions30
- 5Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins29
Success Rate
- 1Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers54.7%
- 2Josh Allen Buffalo Bills50.7%
- 3Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys50.5%
- 4Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins49.9%
- 5Jared Goff Detroit Lions49.2%
Game-Winning Drives
- 1Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks5
- 2Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles4
- 3Josh Allen Buffalo Bills4
- 4Russell Wilson Denver Broncos4
- 5C.J. Stroud Houston Texans3
All 2023 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 36% chance+0.64
Missed 5-yard throw, 79% chance−0.79
2023 ACE Rankings: Quarterbacks
| # | Quarterback | Team | Cmp-Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 410-590 | +4.9 | +28.9 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | SF | 308-444 | +5.9 | +25.9 |
| 3 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 388-560 | +4.3 | +23.9 |
| 4 | Josh Allen | BUF | 385-579 | +3.4 | +19.6 |
| 5 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 216-311 | +6.3 | +19.5 |
| 6 | Derek Carr | NO | 375-548 | +2.6 | +14.5 |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 401-597 | +2.4 | +14.1 |
| 8 | Russell Wilson | DEN | 297-447 | +2.9 | +12.7 |
| 9 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 307-457 | +2.7 | +12.3 |
| 10 | Jake Browning | CIN | 171-243 | +5.0 | +12.0 |
| 11 | Jared Goff | DET | 407-605 | +1.6 | +9.3 |
| 12 | Jordan Love | GB | 372-579 | +1.3 | +7.5 |
| 13 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 370-564 | +1.1 | +6.3 |
| 14 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 244-365 | +1.5 | +5.5 |
| 15 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 352-538 | +1.0 | +5.2 |
| 16 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 319-499 | +0.4 | +2.1 |
| 17 | Geno Smith | SEA | 323-499 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| 18 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 297-456 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| 19 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 364-566 | -0.3 | -1.9 |
| 20 | Will Levis | TEN | 149-255 | -1.1 | -2.7 |
| 21 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 176-268 | -1.4 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Desmond Ridder | ATL | 249-388 | -1.0 | -3.9 |
| 23 | Joshua Dobbs | ARI | 262-417 | -1.4 | -5.7 |
| 24 | Mac Jones | NE | 224-345 | -1.8 | -6.1 |
| 25 | Justin Fields | CHI | 227-370 | -2.1 | -7.6 |
| 26 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | 201-324 | -3.5 | -11.2 |
| 27 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 326-521 | -2.3 | -11.9 |
| 28 | Sam Howell | WAS | 388-612 | -2.1 | -12.8 |
| 29 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | 213-343 | -4.0 | -13.8 |
| 30 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 221-368 | -5.2 | -19.1 |
| 31 | Gardner Minshew | IND | 305-490 | -4.6 | -22.5 |
| 32 | Bryce Young | CAR | 315-527 | -5.2 | -27.3 |
2023 ACE Rankings: Teams
| # | Team | Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 614 | +5.1 | +31.0 |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | 628 | +4.3 | +27.2 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 487 | +5.1 | +25.0 |
| 4 | Miami Dolphins | 564 | +4.4 | +24.8 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 577 | +3.4 | +19.6 |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 613 | +2.7 | +16.8 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 620 | +1.9 | +12.0 |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 509 | +2.0 | +10.3 |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | 606 | +1.6 | +9.9 |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 602 | +1.6 | +9.9 |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | 493 | +2.0 | +9.8 |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | 633 | +1.5 | +9.7 |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers | 579 | +1.5 | +8.5 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | 563 | +1.1 | +6.4 |
| 15 | Tennessee Titans | 490 | +0.4 | +2.2 |
| 16 | New York Giants | 512 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
| 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 568 | -0.5 | -3.0 |
| 18 | Seattle Seahawks | 571 | -0.6 | -3.5 |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 504 | -1.2 | -5.9 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | 631 | -1.1 | -7.2 |
| 21 | Houston Texans | 586 | -1.3 | -7.3 |
| 22 | Washington Commanders | 636 | -1.4 | -8.9 |
| 23 | Arizona Cardinals | 554 | -1.9 | -10.4 |
| 24 | Chicago Bears | 513 | -2.1 | -11.0 |
| 25 | Atlanta Falcons | 526 | -3.0 | -15.5 |
| 26 | New England Patriots | 556 | -3.0 | -16.6 |
| 27 | Los Angeles Rams | 580 | -3.0 | -17.2 |
| 28 | Las Vegas Raiders | 555 | -3.4 | -18.6 |
| 29 | Indianapolis Colts | 574 | -4.8 | -27.6 |
| 30 | Carolina Panthers | 585 | -5.1 | -29.8 |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 620 | -6.1 | -38.0 |
| 32 | New York Jets | 598 | -6.8 | -40.7 |
Quarterback Rankings, All Qualified Quarterbacks
| Rk | Player | Team | GS | Cmp-Att | Yds | TD | INT | Rate | ANY/A | ACE | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | SF | 16 | 308-444 | 4,280 | 31 | 11 | 113.0 | 9.01 | +25.9 | +0.32 |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 17 | 410-590 | 4,516 | 36 | 9 | 105.9 | 7.28 | +28.9 | +0.22 |
| 3 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 17 | 388-560 | 4,624 | 29 | 14 | 101.1 | 7.48 | +23.9 | +0.20 |
| 4 | Josh Allen | BUF | 17 | 385-579 | 4,306 | 29 | 18 | 92.2 | 6.51 | +19.6 | +0.19 |
| 5 | Jordan Love | GB | 17 | 372-579 | 4,159 | 32 | 11 | 96.1 | 6.67 | +7.5 | +0.14 |
| 6 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 16 | 401-597 | 4,183 | 27 | 14 | 92.6 | 6.26 | +14.1 | +0.13 |
| 7 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 17 | 352-538 | 3,858 | 23 | 15 | 89.1 | 5.96 | +5.2 | +0.13 |
| 8 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 15 | 319-499 | 4,108 | 23 | 5 | 100.8 | 7.47 | +2.1 | +0.13 |
| 9 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 16 | 307-457 | 3,678 | 24 | 7 | 102.7 | 7.34 | +12.3 | +0.13 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | DET | 17 | 407-605 | 4,575 | 30 | 12 | 97.9 | 6.99 | +9.3 | +0.12 |
| 11 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 8 | 216-311 | 2,331 | 18 | 5 | 103.8 | 7.18 | +19.5 | +0.12 |
| 12 | Jake Browning | CIN | 7 | 171-243 | 1,936 | 12 | 7 | 98.4 | 6.34 | +12.0 | +0.12 |
| 13 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 15 | 326-521 | 3,965 | 24 | 11 | 92.5 | 6.80 | -11.9 | +0.11 |
| 14 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 17 | 364-566 | 4,044 | 28 | 10 | 94.6 | 6.47 | -1.9 | +0.09 |
| 15 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 13 | 297-456 | 3,134 | 20 | 7 | 93.2 | 6.16 | -0.5 | +0.08 |
| 16 | Geno Smith | SEA | 15 | 323-499 | 3,624 | 20 | 9 | 92.1 | 6.39 | -0.3 | +0.07 |
| 17 | Derek Carr | NO | 17 | 375-548 | 3,878 | 25 | 8 | 97.7 | 6.56 | +14.5 | +0.05 |
| 18 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 16 | 370-564 | 4,016 | 21 | 14 | 88.5 | 5.98 | +6.3 | +0.03 |
| 19 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 10 | 244-365 | 2,309 | 15 | 6 | 91.0 | 5.55 | +5.5 | +0.02 |
| 20 | Gardner Minshew | IND | 13 | 305-490 | 3,305 | 15 | 9 | 84.6 | 5.75 | -22.5 | +0.00 |
| 21 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 8 | 176-268 | 1,799 | 10 | 5 | 89.4 | 5.79 | -3.8 | -0.00 |
| 22 | Russell Wilson | DEN | 15 | 297-447 | 3,070 | 26 | 8 | 98.0 | 6.04 | +12.7 | -0.01 |
| 23 | Justin Fields | CHI | 13 | 227-370 | 2,562 | 16 | 9 | 86.3 | 5.29 | -7.6 | -0.02 |
| 24 | Will Levis | TEN | 9 | 149-255 | 1,808 | 8 | 4 | 84.2 | 5.66 | -2.7 | -0.02 |
| 25 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | 10 | 213-343 | 2,218 | 12 | 7 | 83.9 | 5.37 | -13.8 | -0.05 |
| 26 | Desmond Ridder | ATL | 13 | 249-388 | 2,836 | 12 | 12 | 83.4 | 5.58 | -3.9 | -0.05 |
| 27 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | 12 | 201-324 | 2,070 | 6 | 4 | 81.4 | 5.29 | -11.2 | -0.10 |
| 28 | Sam Howell | WAS | 17 | 388-612 | 3,946 | 21 | 21 | 78.9 | 4.39 | -12.8 | -0.11 |
| 29 | Joshua Dobbs | ARI | 12 | 262-417 | 2,464 | 13 | 10 | 79.5 | 4.60 | -5.7 | -0.11 |
| 30 | Mac Jones | NE | 11 | 224-345 | 2,120 | 10 | 12 | 77.0 | 4.50 | -6.1 | -0.13 |
| 31 | Bryce Young | CAR | 16 | 315-527 | 2,877 | 11 | 10 | 73.7 | 3.68 | -27.3 | -0.22 |
| 32 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 11 | 221-368 | 2,271 | 8 | 7 | 77.2 | 4.29 | -19.1 | -0.24 |
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