Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2019 NFL Quarterback Rankings
Ranked by EPA per Dropback. Qualified: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 2019 regular season.
2019 Leaders
EPA per Dropback
- 1Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens+0.38
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs+0.30
- 3Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans+0.25
- 4Drew Brees New Orleans Saints+0.24
- 5Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions+0.23
ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)
- 1Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks+29.9
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints+28.7
- 3Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans+25.1
- 4Derek Carr Las Vegas Raiders+21.6
- 5Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers+20.0
NFL Passer Rating
- 1Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans117.5
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints116.3
- 3Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens113.3
- 4Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings107.4
- 5Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks106.3
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- 1Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans8.52
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs8.38
- 3Drew Brees New Orleans Saints8.33
- 4Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens8.19
- 5Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions8.15
Completion %
- 1Drew Brees New Orleans Saints74.3%
- 2Derek Carr Las Vegas Raiders70.4%
- 3Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans70.3%
- 4Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings69.1%
- 5Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers69.1%
Passing Yards
- 1Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers5,109
- 2Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys4,902
- 3Jared Goff Los Angeles Rams4,638
- 4Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers4,615
- 5Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons4,466
Passing Touchdowns
- 1Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens36
- 2Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers33
- 3Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks31
- 4Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys30
- 5Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles27
Success Rate
- 1Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans55.6%
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints54.0%
- 3Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys52.4%
- 4Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs50.4%
- 5Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens50.1%
Game-Winning Drives
- 1Deshaun Watson Houston Texans4
- 2Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers4
- 3Josh Allen Buffalo Bills4
- 4Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks4
- 5Ryan Fitzpatrick Miami Dolphins4
All 2019 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 34% chance+0.66
Missed 5-yard throw, 79% chance−0.79
2019 ACE Rankings: Quarterbacks
| # | Quarterback | Team | Cmp-Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 341-516 | +5.8 | +29.9 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | NO | 281-378 | +7.7 | +28.7 |
| 3 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 201-286 | +8.9 | +25.1 |
| 4 | Derek Carr | LV | 361-513 | +4.2 | +21.6 |
| 5 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 390-591 | +3.4 | +20.0 |
| 6 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 329-476 | +3.8 | +17.9 |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 319-484 | +3.5 | +17.1 |
| 8 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | 333-495 | +3.3 | +16.4 |
| 9 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 265-401 | +3.6 | +14.4 |
| 10 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 388-596 | +2.3 | +13.9 |
| 11 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 307-444 | +3.1 | +13.8 |
| 12 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 408-616 | +1.9 | +12.0 |
| 13 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 187-291 | +3.0 | +8.8 |
| 14 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 311-502 | +1.4 | +6.9 |
| 15 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 388-607 | +1.1 | +6.6 |
| 16 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | 273-441 | +0.2 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Jameis Winston | TB | 380-626 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| 18 | Joe Flacco | DEN | 171-262 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 19 | Case Keenum | WAS | 160-247 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| 20 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 284-459 | -0.7 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 353-569 | -0.6 | -3.4 |
| 22 | Mason Rudolph | PIT | 176-283 | -1.9 | -5.4 |
| 23 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 326-516 | -1.2 | -6.1 |
| 24 | Jared Goff | LA | 394-626 | -1.1 | -6.8 |
| 25 | Kyle Allen | CAR | 303-489 | -1.5 | -7.2 |
| 26 | Josh Allen | BUF | 271-461 | -2.0 | -8.9 |
| 27 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 349-542 | -1.9 | -10.3 |
| 28 | Jacoby Brissett | IND | 272-447 | -3.0 | -13.1 |
| 29 | Tom Brady | NE | 373-613 | -2.4 | -14.9 |
| 30 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 314-528 | -3.1 | -16.2 |
| 31 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 317-534 | -3.8 | -20.2 |
| 32 | Gardner Minshew | JAX | 285-470 | -4.5 | -21.0 |
2019 ACE Rankings: Teams
| # | Team | Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | 576 | +5.2 | +30.2 |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 514 | +5.8 | +29.7 |
| 3 | Las Vegas Raiders | 521 | +4.3 | +22.3 |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 681 | +3.0 | +20.6 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 594 | +3.4 | +20.1 |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | 476 | +3.9 | +18.6 |
| 7 | Kansas City Chiefs | 575 | +3.2 | +18.4 |
| 8 | Tennessee Titans | 443 | +3.8 | +16.7 |
| 9 | Houston Texans | 532 | +2.6 | +13.8 |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | 596 | +2.2 | +13.3 |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | 438 | +3.0 | +13.2 |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 466 | +2.4 | +11.1 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 611 | +0.9 | +5.7 |
| 14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 628 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | 577 | -0.4 | -2.5 |
| 16 | New York Jets | 519 | -0.5 | -2.7 |
| 17 | Green Bay Packers | 572 | -0.5 | -3.0 |
| 18 | Miami Dolphins | 612 | -0.6 | -3.9 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | 631 | -1.2 | -7.7 |
| 20 | New York Giants | 607 | -1.3 | -7.9 |
| 21 | Washington Commanders | 476 | -2.0 | -9.6 |
| 22 | Arizona Cardinals | 550 | -2.1 | -11.4 |
| 23 | Denver Broncos | 503 | -2.4 | -12.1 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | 567 | -2.3 | -13.2 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 510 | -2.7 | -13.6 |
| 26 | Buffalo Bills | 509 | -2.8 | -14.1 |
| 27 | New England Patriots | 620 | -2.3 | -14.4 |
| 28 | Carolina Panthers | 631 | -2.9 | -18.2 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 588 | -3.1 | -18.5 |
| 30 | Indianapolis Colts | 510 | -3.6 | -18.6 |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 537 | -4.0 | -21.7 |
| 32 | Cincinnati Bengals | 609 | -4.8 | -29.0 |
Quarterback Rankings, All Qualified Quarterbacks
| Rk | Player | Team | GS | Cmp-Att | Yds | TD | INT | Rate | ANY/A | ACE | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 15 | 265-401 | 3,127 | 36 | 6 | 113.3 | 8.19 | +14.4 | +0.38 |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 14 | 319-484 | 4,031 | 26 | 5 | 105.3 | 8.38 | +17.1 | +0.30 |
| 3 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 10 | 201-286 | 2,742 | 22 | 6 | 117.5 | 8.52 | +25.1 | +0.25 |
| 4 | Drew Brees | NO | 11 | 281-378 | 2,979 | 27 | 4 | 116.3 | 8.33 | +28.7 | +0.24 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 8 | 187-291 | 2,499 | 19 | 5 | 106.0 | 8.15 | +8.8 | +0.23 |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 16 | 388-596 | 4,902 | 30 | 11 | 99.7 | 7.84 | +13.9 | +0.21 |
| 7 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 15 | 307-444 | 3,603 | 26 | 6 | 107.4 | 7.73 | +13.8 | +0.19 |
| 8 | Derek Carr | LV | 16 | 361-513 | 4,054 | 21 | 8 | 100.8 | 7.25 | +21.6 | +0.19 |
| 9 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 16 | 341-516 | 4,110 | 31 | 5 | 106.3 | 7.42 | +29.9 | +0.18 |
| 10 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | 15 | 333-495 | 3,852 | 26 | 12 | 98.0 | 6.63 | +16.4 | +0.17 |
| 11 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 16 | 329-476 | 3,978 | 27 | 13 | 102.0 | 7.22 | +17.9 | +0.16 |
| 12 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 16 | 353-569 | 4,002 | 26 | 4 | 95.4 | 6.71 | -3.4 | +0.12 |
| 13 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 16 | 390-591 | 4,615 | 23 | 20 | 88.5 | 6.32 | +20.0 | +0.11 |
| 14 | Jared Goff | LA | 16 | 394-626 | 4,638 | 22 | 16 | 86.5 | 6.46 | -6.8 | +0.10 |
| 15 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 13 | 311-502 | 3,529 | 20 | 13 | 85.5 | 5.78 | +6.9 | +0.08 |
| 16 | Jameis Winston | TB | 16 | 380-626 | 5,109 | 33 | 30 | 84.3 | 6.15 | +0.4 | +0.08 |
| 17 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 16 | 388-607 | 4,039 | 27 | 7 | 93.1 | 6.26 | +6.6 | +0.07 |
| 18 | Tom Brady | NE | 16 | 373-613 | 4,057 | 24 | 8 | 88.0 | 6.24 | -14.9 | +0.05 |
| 19 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 15 | 408-616 | 4,466 | 26 | 14 | 92.1 | 6.08 | +12.0 | +0.05 |
| 20 | Jacoby Brissett | IND | 15 | 272-447 | 2,942 | 18 | 6 | 88.0 | 6.06 | -13.1 | +0.04 |
| 21 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 16 | 349-542 | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 87.4 | 5.55 | -10.3 | +0.01 |
| 22 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 16 | 317-534 | 3,827 | 22 | 21 | 78.8 | 5.29 | -20.2 | +0.01 |
| 23 | Josh Allen | BUF | 15 | 271-461 | 3,089 | 20 | 9 | 85.3 | 5.71 | -8.9 | +0.01 |
| 24 | Gardner Minshew | JAX | 12 | 285-470 | 3,271 | 21 | 6 | 91.2 | 6.44 | -21.0 | -0.00 |
| 25 | Case Keenum | WAS | 8 | 160-247 | 1,707 | 11 | 5 | 91.3 | 5.94 | -0.3 | -0.00 |
| 26 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 13 | 314-528 | 3,494 | 16 | 14 | 78.3 | 5.19 | -16.2 | -0.01 |
| 27 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | 13 | 273-441 | 3,024 | 19 | 13 | 84.3 | 5.50 | +0.8 | -0.03 |
| 28 | Kyle Allen | CAR | 12 | 303-489 | 3,322 | 17 | 16 | 80.0 | 4.76 | -7.2 | -0.04 |
| 29 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 12 | 284-459 | 3,027 | 24 | 12 | 87.7 | 5.38 | -3.1 | -0.04 |
| 30 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 15 | 326-516 | 3,138 | 17 | 10 | 83.0 | 5.04 | -6.1 | -0.05 |
| 31 | Mason Rudolph | PIT | 8 | 176-283 | 1,765 | 13 | 9 | 82.0 | 5.02 | -5.4 | -0.06 |
| 32 | Joe Flacco | DEN | 8 | 171-262 | 1,822 | 6 | 5 | 85.1 | 5.29 | -0.2 | -0.07 |
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