Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2017 NFL Quarterback Rankings
Ranked by EPA per Dropback. Qualified: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 2017 regular season.
2017 Leaders
EPA per Dropback
- 1Tom Brady New England Patriots+0.22
- 2Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles+0.21
- 3Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers+0.20
- 4Jared Goff Los Angeles Rams+0.19
- 5Drew Brees New Orleans Saints+0.19
ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)
- 1Drew Brees New Orleans Saints+33.5
- 2Tom Brady New England Patriots+25.1
- 3Josh McCown New York Jets+22.3
- 4Alex Smith Kansas City Chiefs+21.0
- 5Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers+19.8
NFL Passer Rating
- 1Alex Smith Kansas City Chiefs104.7
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints103.9
- 3Tom Brady New England Patriots102.8
- 4Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles101.9
- 5Jared Goff Los Angeles Rams100.5
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- 1Jared Goff Los Angeles Rams7.72
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints7.71
- 3Alex Smith Kansas City Chiefs7.65
- 4Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers7.60
- 5Tom Brady New England Patriots7.56
Completion %
- 1Drew Brees New Orleans Saints72.0%
- 2Case Keenum Minnesota Vikings67.6%
- 3Alex Smith Kansas City Chiefs67.5%
- 4Josh McCown New York Jets67.3%
- 5Tom Brady New England Patriots66.3%
Passing Yards
- 1Tom Brady New England Patriots4,577
- 2Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers4,515
- 3Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions4,446
- 4Drew Brees New Orleans Saints4,334
- 5Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers4,259
Passing Touchdowns
- 1Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks34
- 2Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles33
- 3Tom Brady New England Patriots32
- 4Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions29
- 5Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers28
Success Rate
- 1Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers50.9%
- 2Tom Brady New England Patriots50.2%
- 3Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers49.9%
- 4Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers49.8%
- 5Drew Brees New Orleans Saints49.6%
Game-Winning Drives
- 1Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers4
- 2Marcus Mariota Tennessee Titans4
- 3Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions4
- 4Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys3
- 5Kirk Cousins Washington Commanders3
All 2017 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 33% chance+0.67
Missed 5-yard throw, 77% chance−0.77
2017 ACE Rankings: Quarterbacks
| # | Quarterback | Team | Cmp-Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Brees | NO | 386-536 | +6.3 | +33.5 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | NE | 385-581 | +4.3 | +25.1 |
| 3 | Josh McCown | NYJ | 267-397 | +5.7 | +22.3 |
| 4 | Alex Smith | KC | 341-505 | +4.2 | +21.0 |
| 5 | Jameis Winston | TB | 282-442 | +4.5 | +19.8 |
| 6 | Case Keenum | MIN | 325-481 | +4.0 | +19.3 |
| 7 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 342-529 | +3.1 | +16.1 |
| 8 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 361-562 | +2.6 | +14.5 |
| 9 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 339-553 | +2.1 | +11.8 |
| 10 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 371-565 | +1.7 | +9.4 |
| 11 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | 347-540 | +1.4 | +7.4 |
| 12 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 265-440 | +0.8 | +3.4 |
| 13 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 281-453 | +0.7 | +3.1 |
| 14 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 263-420 | +0.7 | +3.1 |
| 15 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 154-238 | +0.5 | +1.2 |
| 16 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 360-575 | +0.1 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 308-490 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| 18 | Carson Palmer | ARI | 164-267 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 19 | Jared Goff | LA | 296-477 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| 20 | Jay Cutler | MIA | 266-429 | -0.8 | -3.5 |
| 21 | Derek Carr | LV | 323-515 | -0.8 | -3.9 |
| 22 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 352-549 | -1.0 | -5.2 |
| 23 | Brett Hundley | GB | 192-316 | -1.9 | -5.9 |
| 24 | Trevor Siemian | DEN | 206-349 | -3.0 | -10.5 |
| 25 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 196-330 | -4.1 | -13.4 |
| 26 | Cam Newton | CAR | 291-492 | -2.8 | -13.7 |
| 27 | Blake Bortles | JAX | 315-523 | -2.9 | -15.1 |
| 28 | Eli Manning | NYG | 352-571 | -2.7 | -15.6 |
| 29 | C.J. Beathard | SF | 123-224 | -7.5 | -16.8 |
| 30 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 297-496 | -3.9 | -19.2 |
| 31 | Jacoby Brissett | IND | 276-469 | -4.6 | -21.4 |
| 32 | DeShone Kizer | CLE | 255-476 | -6.6 | -31.1 |
2017 ACE Rankings: Teams
| # | Team | Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | 533 | +6.3 | +33.5 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 587 | +4.3 | +25.1 |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | 527 | +4.2 | +22.0 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 542 | +3.7 | +20.2 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 587 | +3.4 | +19.8 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 602 | +2.9 | +17.6 |
| 7 | Atlanta Falcons | 527 | +3.2 | +16.9 |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 551 | +2.1 | +11.7 |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | 570 | +1.6 | +9.1 |
| 10 | Washington Commanders | 539 | +1.4 | +7.4 |
| 11 | New York Jets | 504 | +1.1 | +5.6 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles | 564 | +0.9 | +5.1 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Chargers | 581 | +0.3 | +1.8 |
| 14 | Tennessee Titans | 495 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys | 491 | -0.2 | -1.1 |
| 16 | Miami Dolphins | 601 | -0.4 | -2.5 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Rams | 516 | -0.6 | -2.9 |
| 18 | Buffalo Bills | 474 | -0.8 | -3.9 |
| 19 | Green Bay Packers | 561 | -0.7 | -4.1 |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens | 564 | -0.9 | -5.0 |
| 21 | Las Vegas Raiders | 557 | -1.1 | -6.4 |
| 22 | Chicago Bears | 472 | -2.2 | -10.5 |
| 23 | San Francisco 49ers | 604 | -2.5 | -15.1 |
| 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 526 | -3.1 | -16.2 |
| 25 | Houston Texans | 522 | -3.2 | -16.8 |
| 26 | Carolina Panthers | 499 | -3.4 | -17.0 |
| 27 | Denver Broncos | 564 | -3.1 | -17.3 |
| 28 | New York Giants | 607 | -3.2 | -19.3 |
| 29 | Cincinnati Bengals | 509 | -4.1 | -20.8 |
| 30 | Indianapolis Colts | 484 | -4.8 | -23.3 |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | 597 | -4.2 | -24.9 |
| 32 | Cleveland Browns | 573 | -5.9 | -33.8 |
Quarterback Rankings, All Qualified Quarterbacks
| Rk | Player | Team | GS | Cmp-Att | Yds | TD | INT | Rate | ANY/A | ACE | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Brady | NE | 16 | 385-581 | 4,577 | 32 | 8 | 102.8 | 7.56 | +25.1 | +0.22 |
| 2 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 13 | 265-440 | 3,296 | 33 | 7 | 101.9 | 7.43 | +3.4 | +0.21 |
| 3 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 16 | 360-575 | 4,515 | 28 | 10 | 96.0 | 7.60 | +0.8 | +0.20 |
| 4 | Jared Goff | LA | 15 | 296-477 | 3,804 | 28 | 7 | 100.5 | 7.72 | -0.5 | +0.19 |
| 5 | Drew Brees | NO | 16 | 386-536 | 4,334 | 23 | 8 | 103.9 | 7.71 | +33.5 | +0.19 |
| 6 | Alex Smith | KC | 15 | 341-505 | 4,042 | 26 | 5 | 104.7 | 7.65 | +21.0 | +0.19 |
| 7 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 16 | 342-529 | 4,095 | 20 | 12 | 91.4 | 6.87 | +16.1 | +0.15 |
| 8 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 15 | 361-562 | 4,259 | 28 | 14 | 93.4 | 6.95 | +14.5 | +0.15 |
| 9 | Case Keenum | MIN | 14 | 325-481 | 3,547 | 22 | 7 | 98.3 | 7.03 | +19.3 | +0.13 |
| 10 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 7 | 154-238 | 1,675 | 16 | 6 | 97.2 | 5.99 | +1.2 | +0.12 |
| 11 | Jameis Winston | TB | 13 | 282-442 | 3,504 | 19 | 11 | 92.2 | 6.70 | +19.8 | +0.11 |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 16 | 371-565 | 4,446 | 29 | 10 | 99.3 | 7.01 | +9.4 | +0.08 |
| 13 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 16 | 339-553 | 3,983 | 34 | 11 | 95.4 | 6.45 | +11.8 | +0.08 |
| 14 | Blake Bortles | JAX | 16 | 315-523 | 3,687 | 21 | 13 | 84.7 | 6.21 | -15.1 | +0.07 |
| 15 | Josh McCown | NYJ | 13 | 267-397 | 2,926 | 18 | 9 | 94.5 | 6.00 | +22.3 | +0.07 |
| 16 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 14 | 263-420 | 2,799 | 14 | 4 | 89.2 | 5.67 | +3.1 | +0.06 |
| 17 | Derek Carr | LV | 15 | 323-515 | 3,496 | 22 | 13 | 86.4 | 6.07 | -3.9 | +0.05 |
| 18 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | 16 | 347-540 | 4,093 | 27 | 13 | 93.9 | 6.38 | +7.4 | +0.05 |
| 19 | Cam Newton | CAR | 16 | 291-492 | 3,302 | 22 | 16 | 80.7 | 5.28 | -13.7 | +0.02 |
| 20 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 15 | 281-453 | 3,232 | 13 | 15 | 79.3 | 5.51 | +3.1 | +0.01 |
| 21 | Carson Palmer | ARI | 7 | 164-267 | 1,978 | 9 | 7 | 84.4 | 5.86 | -0.2 | -0.01 |
| 22 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 16 | 308-490 | 3,324 | 22 | 13 | 86.6 | 5.74 | +0.1 | -0.02 |
| 23 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 16 | 297-496 | 3,320 | 25 | 12 | 86.6 | 5.65 | -19.2 | -0.05 |
| 24 | Jay Cutler | MIA | 13 | 266-429 | 2,666 | 19 | 14 | 80.8 | 5.04 | -3.5 | -0.05 |
| 25 | Jacoby Brissett | IND | 15 | 276-469 | 3,098 | 13 | 7 | 81.7 | 5.26 | -21.4 | -0.07 |
| 26 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 12 | 196-330 | 2,193 | 7 | 7 | 77.5 | 5.05 | -13.4 | -0.08 |
| 27 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 16 | 352-549 | 3,141 | 18 | 13 | 80.4 | 4.71 | -5.2 | -0.09 |
| 28 | Eli Manning | NYG | 15 | 352-571 | 3,468 | 19 | 13 | 80.4 | 5.10 | -15.6 | -0.10 |
| 29 | Trevor Siemian | DEN | 10 | 206-349 | 2,285 | 12 | 14 | 73.3 | 4.38 | -10.5 | -0.11 |
| 30 | C.J. Beathard | SF | 5 | 123-224 | 1,430 | 4 | 6 | 69.2 | 4.52 | -16.8 | -0.14 |
| 31 | Brett Hundley | GB | 9 | 192-316 | 1,836 | 9 | 12 | 70.6 | 3.71 | -5.9 | -0.16 |
| 32 | DeShone Kizer | CLE | 15 | 255-476 | 2,894 | 11 | 22 | 60.5 | 3.69 | -31.1 | -0.16 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016
QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
All Posts →Understanding the Throw.
What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
What CPOE Means, and How ACE Builds on It
Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
Read Article →Why Sacks Belong Partly to the Quarterback
A sack is the rush, the line and the decision. Why our dropback stats count them.
Read Article →FROM THE A-GAME PODCAST
Listen to the Episode ↗10 Mind-Body Performance Recovery Tools Backed By Science
Learn the break down of ten mind-body recovery tools, each backed by science, including how and when to use them to perform at your peak.