Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2018 NFL Quarterback Rankings
Ranked by EPA per Dropback. Qualified: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 2018 regular season.
2018 Leaders
EPA per Dropback
- 1Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs+0.38
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints+0.32
- 3Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers+0.25
- 4Ryan Fitzpatrick Tampa Bay Buccaneers+0.22
- 5Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers+0.22
ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)
- 1Drew Brees New Orleans Saints+44.3
- 2Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons+38.9
- 3Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs+32.6
- 4Deshaun Watson Houston Texans+32.1
- 5Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings+31.7
NFL Passer Rating
- 1Drew Brees New Orleans Saints115.7
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs113.8
- 3Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks110.9
- 4Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons108.1
- 5Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers105.5
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- 1Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs8.89
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints8.47
- 3Ryan Fitzpatrick Tampa Bay Buccaneers8.04
- 4Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers7.79
- 5Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons7.71
Completion %
- 1Drew Brees New Orleans Saints74.4%
- 2Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings70.1%
- 3Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles69.6%
- 4Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons69.4%
- 5Derek Carr Las Vegas Raiders68.9%
Passing Yards
- 1Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers5,129
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs5,097
- 3Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons4,924
- 4Jared Goff Los Angeles Rams4,688
- 5Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts4,593
Passing Touchdowns
- 1Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs50
- 2Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts39
- 3Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons35
- 4Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks35
- 5Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers34
Success Rate
- 1Drew Brees New Orleans Saints55.9%
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs52.3%
- 3Tom Brady New England Patriots51.3%
- 4Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons51.2%
- 5Jared Goff Los Angeles Rams50.8%
Game-Winning Drives
- 1Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys5
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints5
- 3Case Keenum Denver Broncos4
- 4Deshaun Watson Houston Texans4
- 5Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers3
All 2018 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 33% chance+0.67
Missed 5-yard throw, 78% chance−0.78
2018 ACE Rankings: Quarterbacks
| # | Quarterback | Team | Cmp-Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Brees | NO | 364-489 | +9.1 | +44.3 |
| 2 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 422-608 | +6.4 | +38.9 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 383-580 | +5.6 | +32.6 |
| 4 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | 345-505 | +6.4 | +32.1 |
| 5 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 425-606 | +5.3 | +31.7 |
| 6 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 279-401 | +7.1 | +28.4 |
| 7 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 347-508 | +4.5 | +22.8 |
| 8 | Derek Carr | LV | 381-553 | +4.1 | +22.2 |
| 9 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 280-427 | +5.2 | +21.8 |
| 10 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | TB | 164-246 | +7.0 | +17.3 |
| 11 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 289-434 | +3.9 | +16.8 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | TB | 244-378 | +4.4 | +16.6 |
| 13 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 452-675 | +2.4 | +16.4 |
| 14 | Cam Newton | CAR | 320-471 | +3.3 | +15.5 |
| 15 | Andrew Luck | IND | 430-639 | +2.4 | +15.1 |
| 16 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 356-526 | +2.8 | +14.7 |
| 17 | Tom Brady | NE | 375-570 | +2.4 | +13.7 |
| 18 | Jared Goff | LA | 364-561 | +2.4 | +13.3 |
| 19 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 228-331 | +3.7 | +12.1 |
| 20 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 310-486 | +1.9 | +9.3 |
| 21 | Eli Manning | NYG | 380-576 | +1.5 | +8.6 |
| 22 | Nick Mullens | SF | 176-274 | +1.8 | +4.8 |
| 23 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 176-274 | +1.2 | +3.2 |
| 24 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 372-597 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 367-555 | -0.2 | -1.1 |
| 26 | Alex Smith | WAS | 205-328 | -0.8 | -2.4 |
| 27 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 232-379 | -1.8 | -6.8 |
| 28 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 226-365 | -2.2 | -7.9 |
| 29 | Case Keenum | DEN | 365-586 | -1.5 | -8.8 |
| 30 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | 239-414 | -4.2 | -17.2 |
| 31 | Blake Bortles | JAX | 243-403 | -4.6 | -18.7 |
| 32 | Josh Allen | BUF | 168-319 | -5.9 | -19.0 |
| 33 | Josh Rosen | ARI | 217-393 | -8.6 | -33.5 |
2018 ACE Rankings: Teams
| # | Team | Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 595 | +7.4 | +44.2 |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints | 519 | +8.1 | +42.1 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 616 | +6.3 | +39.0 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 624 | +5.4 | +33.5 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 582 | +5.6 | +32.6 |
| 6 | Houston Texans | 500 | +6.3 | +31.7 |
| 7 | Minnesota Vikings | 603 | +5.3 | +31.7 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 511 | +4.4 | +22.4 |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 419 | +5.2 | +21.8 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 512 | +4.2 | +21.4 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Raiders | 549 | +3.9 | +21.2 |
| 12 | Carolina Panthers | 559 | +3.2 | +17.7 |
| 13 | Indianapolis Colts | 642 | +2.3 | +14.5 |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 527 | +2.7 | +14.2 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 686 | +2.0 | +14.0 |
| 16 | New England Patriots | 572 | +2.4 | +14.0 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Rams | 566 | +2.3 | +12.8 |
| 18 | New York Giants | 582 | +1.3 | +7.5 |
| 19 | Tennessee Titans | 437 | +1.4 | +6.3 |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | 453 | +1.2 | +5.5 |
| 21 | Cleveland Browns | 570 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
| 22 | Green Bay Packers | 637 | -0.7 | -4.8 |
| 23 | Detroit Lions | 573 | -1.0 | -5.7 |
| 24 | San Francisco 49ers | 528 | -1.2 | -6.4 |
| 25 | Denver Broncos | 586 | -1.4 | -7.9 |
| 26 | Washington Commanders | 503 | -1.6 | -8.0 |
| 27 | Cincinnati Bengals | 539 | -2.8 | -15.1 |
| 28 | Baltimore Ravens | 553 | -2.9 | -15.8 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 536 | -3.2 | -17.4 |
| 30 | New York Jets | 522 | -4.9 | -25.5 |
| 31 | Buffalo Bills | 498 | -6.0 | -29.9 |
| 32 | Arizona Cardinals | 494 | -7.1 | -34.9 |
Quarterback Rankings, All Qualified Quarterbacks
| Rk | Player | Team | GS | Cmp-Att | Yds | TD | INT | Rate | ANY/A | ACE | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 16 | 383-580 | 5,097 | 50 | 12 | 113.8 | 8.89 | +32.6 | +0.38 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | NO | 15 | 364-489 | 3,992 | 32 | 5 | 115.7 | 8.47 | +44.3 | +0.32 |
| 3 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 16 | 347-508 | 4,308 | 32 | 12 | 105.5 | 7.79 | +22.8 | +0.25 |
| 4 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | TB | 7 | 164-246 | 2,366 | 17 | 12 | 100.4 | 8.04 | +17.3 | +0.22 |
| 5 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 16 | 452-675 | 5,129 | 34 | 16 | 96.5 | 7.04 | +16.4 | +0.22 |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 16 | 422-608 | 4,924 | 35 | 7 | 108.1 | 7.71 | +38.9 | +0.21 |
| 7 | Jared Goff | LA | 16 | 364-561 | 4,688 | 32 | 12 | 101.1 | 7.69 | +13.3 | +0.20 |
| 8 | Andrew Luck | IND | 16 | 430-639 | 4,593 | 39 | 15 | 98.7 | 6.95 | +15.1 | +0.18 |
| 9 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 16 | 280-427 | 3,448 | 35 | 7 | 110.9 | 7.28 | +21.8 | +0.17 |
| 10 | Tom Brady | NE | 16 | 375-570 | 4,355 | 29 | 11 | 97.7 | 7.26 | +13.7 | +0.17 |
| 11 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 14 | 289-434 | 3,223 | 24 | 12 | 95.4 | 6.59 | +16.8 | +0.16 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | TB | 9 | 244-378 | 2,992 | 19 | 14 | 90.2 | 6.38 | +16.6 | +0.15 |
| 13 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | 16 | 345-505 | 4,165 | 26 | 9 | 103.1 | 6.87 | +32.1 | +0.14 |
| 14 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 15 | 372-597 | 4,442 | 25 | 2 | 97.6 | 6.96 | -0.1 | +0.12 |
| 15 | Nick Mullens | SF | 8 | 176-274 | 2,277 | 13 | 10 | 90.8 | 6.74 | +4.8 | +0.11 |
| 16 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 13 | 310-486 | 3,725 | 27 | 14 | 93.7 | 6.77 | +9.3 | +0.09 |
| 17 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 11 | 279-401 | 3,074 | 21 | 7 | 102.2 | 6.89 | +28.4 | +0.09 |
| 18 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 11 | 226-365 | 2,566 | 21 | 11 | 89.6 | 6.05 | -7.9 | +0.08 |
| 19 | Cam Newton | CAR | 14 | 320-471 | 3,395 | 24 | 13 | 94.2 | 6.15 | +15.5 | +0.08 |
| 20 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 13 | 228-331 | 2,528 | 11 | 8 | 92.3 | 5.75 | +12.1 | +0.07 |
| 21 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 16 | 356-526 | 3,885 | 22 | 8 | 96.9 | 6.22 | +14.7 | +0.06 |
| 22 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 9 | 232-379 | 2,465 | 12 | 6 | 84.2 | 5.96 | -6.8 | +0.05 |
| 23 | Eli Manning | NYG | 16 | 380-576 | 4,299 | 21 | 11 | 92.4 | 6.21 | +8.6 | +0.04 |
| 24 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 16 | 367-555 | 3,777 | 21 | 11 | 89.9 | 5.79 | -1.1 | +0.01 |
| 25 | Derek Carr | LV | 16 | 381-553 | 4,049 | 19 | 10 | 93.9 | 6.09 | +22.2 | +0.00 |
| 26 | Alex Smith | WAS | 10 | 205-328 | 2,180 | 10 | 5 | 85.7 | 5.81 | -2.4 | +0.00 |
| 27 | Josh Allen | BUF | 11 | 168-319 | 2,044 | 10 | 12 | 67.4 | 4.30 | -19.0 | -0.01 |
| 28 | Case Keenum | DEN | 16 | 365-586 | 3,890 | 18 | 15 | 81.2 | 5.39 | -8.8 | -0.01 |
| 29 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | 13 | 239-414 | 2,865 | 17 | 15 | 77.6 | 5.24 | -17.2 | -0.01 |
| 30 | Blake Bortles | JAX | 12 | 243-403 | 2,718 | 13 | 11 | 79.8 | 5.32 | -18.7 | -0.02 |
| 31 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 16 | 425-606 | 4,298 | 30 | 10 | 99.7 | 6.48 | +31.7 | -0.02 |
| 32 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 11 | 176-274 | 1,979 | 17 | 9 | 92.7 | 5.29 | +3.2 | -0.16 |
| 33 | Josh Rosen | ARI | 13 | 217-393 | 2,278 | 11 | 14 | 66.7 | 3.53 | -33.5 | -0.32 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016
QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
All Posts →Understanding the Throw.
What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
What CPOE Means, and How ACE Builds on It
Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
Read Article →Why Sacks Belong Partly to the Quarterback
A sack is the rush, the line and the decision. Why our dropback stats count them.
Read Article →FROM THE A-GAME PODCAST
Listen to the Episode ↗10 Mind-Body Performance Recovery Tools Backed By Science
Learn the break down of ten mind-body recovery tools, each backed by science, including how and when to use them to perform at your peak.