Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2016 NFL Quarterback Rankings
Ranked by EPA per Dropback. Qualified: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 2016 regular season.
2016 Leaders
EPA per Dropback
- 1Tom Brady New England Patriots+0.34
- 2Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons+0.31
- 3Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys+0.28
- 4Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers+0.24
- 5Kirk Cousins Washington Commanders+0.19
ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)
- 1Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons+43.6
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints+40.8
- 3Sam Bradford Minnesota Vikings+39.5
- 4Kirk Cousins Washington Commanders+37.7
- 5Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers+28.6
NFL Passer Rating
- 1Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons117.1
- 2Tom Brady New England Patriots112.2
- 3Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys104.9
- 4Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers104.2
- 5Drew Brees New Orleans Saints101.7
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- 1Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons9.03
- 2Tom Brady New England Patriots8.81
- 3Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys7.86
- 4Kirk Cousins Washington Commanders7.45
- 5Drew Brees New Orleans Saints7.27
Completion %
- 1Sam Bradford Minnesota Vikings71.6%
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints70.0%
- 3Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons69.9%
- 4Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys67.8%
- 5Tom Brady New England Patriots67.4%
Passing Yards
- 1Drew Brees New Orleans Saints5,208
- 2Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons4,944
- 3Kirk Cousins Washington Commanders4,917
- 4Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers4,428
- 5Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers4,386
Passing Touchdowns
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers40
- 2Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons38
- 3Drew Brees New Orleans Saints37
- 4Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers33
- 5Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts31
Success Rate
- 1Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons54.0%
- 2Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys52.7%
- 3Kirk Cousins Washington Commanders52.6%
- 4Drew Brees New Orleans Saints51.3%
- 5Tom Brady New England Patriots50.4%
Game-Winning Drives
- 1Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions7
- 2Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys5
- 3Eli Manning New York Giants5
- 4Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts4
- 5Drew Brees New Orleans Saints3
All 2016 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 33% chance+0.67
Missed 5-yard throw, 77% chance−0.77
2016 ACE Rankings: Quarterbacks
| # | Quarterback | Team | Cmp-Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 373-534 | +8.2 | +43.6 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | NO | 471-673 | +6.2 | +40.8 |
| 3 | Sam Bradford | MIN | 395-552 | +7.2 | +39.5 |
| 4 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | 406-606 | +6.3 | +37.7 |
| 5 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 401-610 | +4.7 | +28.6 |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 311-459 | +5.3 | +24.3 |
| 7 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 261-389 | +5.9 | +22.9 |
| 8 | Tom Brady | NE | 291-432 | +5.1 | +22.2 |
| 9 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 353-546 | +4.0 | +21.8 |
| 10 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 328-509 | +3.3 | +16.7 |
| 11 | Alex Smith | KC | 328-489 | +3.1 | +15.0 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | TB | 345-567 | +2.0 | +11.1 |
| 13 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 269-436 | +2.0 | +8.8 |
| 14 | Andrew Luck | IND | 346-545 | +1.6 | +8.7 |
| 15 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 388-594 | +1.3 | +7.7 |
| 16 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 364-563 | +1.4 | +7.6 |
| 17 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 436-672 | +0.9 | +5.8 |
| 18 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 276-451 | +1.0 | +4.4 |
| 19 | Carson Palmer | ARI | 364-597 | +0.7 | +4.1 |
| 20 | Derek Carr | LV | 357-560 | +0.3 | +1.5 |
| 21 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 379-607 | +0.1 | +0.9 |
| 22 | Eli Manning | NYG | 377-598 | -0.4 | -2.7 |
| 23 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 349-578 | -1.2 | -6.9 |
| 24 | Case Keenum | LA | 196-322 | -3.1 | -9.9 |
| 25 | Trevor Siemian | DEN | 289-486 | -2.0 | -9.9 |
| 26 | Colin Kaepernick | SF | 196-331 | -3.6 | -11.9 |
| 27 | Brock Osweiler | HOU | 301-510 | -2.8 | -14.4 |
| 28 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | 228-403 | -3.8 | -15.3 |
| 29 | Blake Bortles | JAX | 368-625 | -4.0 | -25.0 |
| 30 | Cam Newton | CAR | 270-510 | -5.6 | -28.2 |
2016 ACE Rankings: Teams
| # | Team | Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | 537 | +8.0 | +42.9 |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints | 662 | +6.3 | +41.6 |
| 3 | Washington Commanders | 604 | +6.4 | +38.4 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 587 | +6.4 | +37.4 |
| 5 | Miami Dolphins | 474 | +5.6 | +26.7 |
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | 618 | +4.0 | +24.9 |
| 7 | New England Patriots | 549 | +4.5 | +24.5 |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 562 | +4.3 | +24.0 |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | 481 | +4.7 | +22.5 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 542 | +3.1 | +16.8 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 591 | +2.8 | +16.4 |
| 12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 578 | +2.4 | +13.7 |
| 13 | Indianapolis Colts | 580 | +1.8 | +10.7 |
| 14 | Detroit Lions | 591 | +1.3 | +7.7 |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 561 | +1.4 | +7.6 |
| 16 | Chicago Bears | 556 | +1.1 | +5.9 |
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 672 | +0.7 | +4.7 |
| 18 | Tennessee Titans | 498 | +0.8 | +4.1 |
| 19 | Buffalo Bills | 472 | +0.7 | +3.4 |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | 605 | +0.2 | +1.3 |
| 21 | Las Vegas Raiders | 593 | +0.0 | +0.3 |
| 22 | New York Giants | 598 | -0.4 | -2.7 |
| 23 | Arizona Cardinals | 641 | -0.5 | -3.3 |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | 565 | -0.8 | -4.4 |
| 25 | Los Angeles Chargers | 578 | -1.3 | -7.7 |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | 567 | -1.6 | -9.2 |
| 27 | Houston Texans | 580 | -2.4 | -13.7 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | 489 | -4.0 | -19.5 |
| 29 | New York Jets | 550 | -4.2 | -23.1 |
| 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 626 | -3.9 | -24.5 |
| 31 | Carolina Panthers | 560 | -4.4 | -24.9 |
| 32 | Los Angeles Rams | 535 | -5.9 | -31.3 |
Quarterback Rankings, All Qualified Quarterbacks
| Rk | Player | Team | GS | Cmp-Att | Yds | TD | INT | Rate | ANY/A | ACE | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Brady | NE | 12 | 291-432 | 3,554 | 28 | 2 | 112.2 | 8.81 | +22.2 | +0.34 |
| 2 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 16 | 373-534 | 4,944 | 38 | 7 | 117.1 | 9.03 | +43.6 | +0.31 |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 15 | 311-459 | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 104.9 | 7.86 | +24.3 | +0.28 |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 16 | 401-610 | 4,428 | 40 | 7 | 104.2 | 7.24 | +28.6 | +0.24 |
| 5 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | 16 | 406-606 | 4,917 | 25 | 12 | 97.2 | 7.45 | +37.7 | +0.19 |
| 6 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 14 | 328-509 | 3,819 | 29 | 13 | 95.4 | 6.98 | +16.7 | +0.17 |
| 7 | Drew Brees | NO | 16 | 471-673 | 5,208 | 37 | 15 | 101.7 | 7.27 | +40.8 | +0.16 |
| 8 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 16 | 388-594 | 4,327 | 24 | 10 | 93.3 | 6.56 | +7.7 | +0.15 |
| 9 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 15 | 276-451 | 3,426 | 26 | 9 | 95.6 | 7.14 | +4.4 | +0.14 |
| 10 | Derek Carr | LV | 15 | 357-560 | 3,937 | 28 | 6 | 96.7 | 7.20 | +1.5 | +0.13 |
| 11 | Andrew Luck | IND | 15 | 346-545 | 4,240 | 31 | 13 | 96.4 | 6.84 | +8.7 | +0.13 |
| 12 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 16 | 364-563 | 4,206 | 18 | 8 | 91.8 | 6.53 | +7.6 | +0.12 |
| 13 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 15 | 269-436 | 3,023 | 17 | 6 | 89.7 | 6.07 | +8.8 | +0.11 |
| 14 | Jameis Winston | TB | 16 | 345-567 | 4,090 | 28 | 18 | 86.1 | 5.98 | +11.1 | +0.11 |
| 15 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 16 | 353-546 | 4,219 | 21 | 11 | 92.6 | 6.56 | +21.8 | +0.10 |
| 16 | Alex Smith | KC | 15 | 328-489 | 3,502 | 15 | 8 | 91.2 | 6.39 | +15.0 | +0.10 |
| 17 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 16 | 349-578 | 4,386 | 33 | 21 | 87.9 | 6.37 | -6.9 | +0.09 |
| 18 | Sam Bradford | MIN | 15 | 395-552 | 3,877 | 20 | 5 | 99.3 | 6.41 | +39.5 | +0.07 |
| 19 | Carson Palmer | ARI | 15 | 364-597 | 4,233 | 26 | 14 | 87.2 | 6.03 | +4.1 | +0.06 |
| 20 | Colin Kaepernick | SF | 11 | 196-331 | 2,241 | 16 | 4 | 90.7 | 5.92 | -11.9 | +0.05 |
| 21 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 13 | 261-389 | 2,995 | 19 | 12 | 93.5 | 6.27 | +22.9 | +0.04 |
| 22 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 16 | 379-607 | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 79.3 | 5.09 | +0.9 | +0.04 |
| 23 | Trevor Siemian | DEN | 14 | 289-486 | 3,401 | 18 | 10 | 84.6 | 6.04 | -9.9 | +0.03 |
| 24 | Eli Manning | NYG | 16 | 377-598 | 4,027 | 26 | 16 | 86.0 | 5.95 | -2.7 | -0.01 |
| 25 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 16 | 436-672 | 4,317 | 20 | 15 | 83.5 | 5.39 | +5.8 | -0.03 |
| 26 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | 11 | 228-403 | 2,710 | 12 | 17 | 69.6 | 4.99 | -15.3 | -0.03 |
| 27 | Blake Bortles | JAX | 16 | 368-625 | 3,905 | 23 | 16 | 78.8 | 5.23 | -25.0 | -0.03 |
| 28 | Cam Newton | CAR | 15 | 270-510 | 3,509 | 19 | 14 | 75.8 | 5.46 | -28.2 | -0.05 |
| 29 | Brock Osweiler | HOU | 15 | 301-510 | 2,957 | 15 | 16 | 72.2 | 4.34 | -14.4 | -0.05 |
| 30 | Case Keenum | LA | 9 | 196-322 | 2,201 | 9 | 11 | 76.4 | 5.06 | -9.9 | -0.10 |
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QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
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