What We Track How QuarterbackStats.com measures passing

EPA per Dropback

Our primary quarterback ranking. Expected points added (EPA) measures how much each play changed the points a team could expect to score next; it is a standard idea from football analytics, not ours. Dropbacks are pass attempts, sacks and scrambles. Spikes and kneel-downs are left out. We use nflverse's quarterback EPA, which does not charge a passer for a receiver's fumble after the catch.

A play is a success when its EPA is above zero. We use this one rule for both leagues so the numbers compare.

ACE: Accuracy Compared to Expectation

ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE): completions minus the expected chance of completing every attempt. The full explanation is on the ACE page.

2026 model (seasons 2022–2026, 77,578 attempts)

Log-odds scale: a negative number lowers the chance of a completion.

Receivers

Receivers are ranked by EPA per target: expected points added on every pass thrown their way, caught or not. Catch rate over expected uses the same completion model as ACE. Target share, air yards share, WOPR and yards per team pass attempt measure how much of the passing game runs through a player.

Qualifiers

Rate leaderboards use the NFL's minimums: 14 pass attempts per team game for passers and 1.875 receptions per team game for receivers. During a season the minimum scales with the games played so far; in the postseason it is one game's worth. Connections need 2 targets per team game.

Garbage Time, Clutch and Game-Winning Drives

Garbage time is a margin of more than 38 points in the 2nd quarter, 28 in the 3rd or 22 in the 4th; we show "excluding garbage time" as a split, never instead of the full number. Clutch is the 4th quarter or overtime with the score within 8, the same definition FootballKickingStats.com uses. A game-winning drive starts in the 4th quarter or overtime tied or trailing by 8 or fewer and ends in the score that puts the team ahead for good in a win; a 4th-quarter comeback is one that started in the 4th quarter while trailing.

The Throw Map

The play-by-play records which third of the field each pass went to (left, middle or right) and how far it travelled in the air, but not the exact spot or where the quarterback stood. The throw map draws each pass in its third at its air-yard depth. Spikes and sacks are not drawn.

What We Don't Publish Yet

Pressure, time to throw, play action, drops and coverage come from licensed or gated sources (FTN charting, Next Gen Stats, participation data, PFR advanced stats, ESPN QBR). We add each one only after its license is cleared. College quarterbacks arrive in a later phase; college depth and direction exist only from 2025.

Data

NFL play-by-play, rosters, schedules and team colors from nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Counting stats are checked against nflverse's official season lines every build. Editorial standards · Report an error