Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2021 NFL Quarterback Rankings
Ranked by EPA per Dropback. Qualified: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 2021 regular season.
2021 Leaders
EPA per Dropback
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers+0.25
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs+0.23
- 3Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers+0.20
- 4Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers+0.19
- 5Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals+0.19
ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)
- 1Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals+34.0
- 2Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers+33.1
- 3Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys+23.9
- 4Mac Jones New England Patriots+20.5
- 5Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans+17.7
NFL Passer Rating
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers111.9
- 2Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals108.3
- 3Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys104.2
- 4Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings103.1
- 5Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks103.1
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers8.00
- 2Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals7.51
- 3Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams7.45
- 4Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings7.42
- 5Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.41
Completion %
- 1Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals70.4%
- 2Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals69.2%
- 3Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers68.9%
- 4Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys68.8%
- 5Derek Carr Las Vegas Raiders68.4%
Passing Yards
- 1Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers5,316
- 2Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers5,014
- 3Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams4,886
- 4Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs4,839
- 5Derek Carr Las Vegas Raiders4,804
Passing Touchdowns
- 1Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers43
- 2Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams41
- 3Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers38
- 4Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs37
- 5Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys37
Success Rate
- 1Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs52.9%
- 2Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers51.3%
- 3Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers51.3%
- 4Josh Allen Buffalo Bills51.3%
- 5Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals50.5%
Game-Winning Drives
- 1Derek Carr Las Vegas Raiders6
- 2Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers5
- 3Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers5
- 4Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers5
- 5Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings4
All 2021 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 35% chance+0.65
Missed 5-yard throw, 79% chance−0.79
2021 ACE Rankings: Quarterbacks
| # | Quarterback | Team | Cmp-Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 366-520 | +6.6 | +34.0 |
| 2 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 366-531 | +6.3 | +33.1 |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 410-596 | +4.0 | +23.9 |
| 4 | Mac Jones | NE | 352-521 | +3.9 | +20.5 |
| 5 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 357-531 | +3.3 | +17.7 |
| 6 | Derek Carr | LV | 428-626 | +2.7 | +16.8 |
| 7 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 375-560 | +2.8 | +15.6 |
| 8 | Tom Brady | TB | 485-719 | +2.1 | +15.3 |
| 9 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 333-481 | +3.1 | +15.1 |
| 10 | Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | 285-426 | +3.5 | +15.0 |
| 11 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 259-400 | +3.4 | +13.7 |
| 12 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 372-561 | +2.4 | +13.2 |
| 13 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 404-601 | +2.1 | +12.4 |
| 14 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 301-441 | +2.6 | +11.2 |
| 15 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 436-658 | +1.7 | +11.1 |
| 16 | Josh Allen | BUF | 409-646 | +1.6 | +10.1 |
| 17 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 263-388 | +1.7 | +6.7 |
| 18 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 443-672 | +0.9 | +5.8 |
| 19 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | 321-494 | +1.0 | +4.9 |
| 20 | Jared Goff | DET | 332-494 | +0.8 | +3.8 |
| 21 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 246-382 | +0.9 | +3.4 |
| 22 | Davis Mills | HOU | 263-394 | +0.3 | +1.3 |
| 23 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 232-361 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
| 24 | Justin Fields | CHI | 159-270 | -1.3 | -3.5 |
| 25 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 265-432 | -0.9 | -3.7 |
| 26 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 390-605 | -1.3 | -7.8 |
| 27 | Carson Wentz | IND | 322-516 | -1.9 | -9.8 |
| 28 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 253-418 | -3.1 | -13.0 |
| 29 | Sam Darnold | CAR | 243-406 | -6.0 | -24.4 |
| 30 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 359-602 | -4.9 | -29.6 |
| 31 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 213-383 | -10.1 | -38.4 |
2021 ACE Rankings: Teams
| # | Team | Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers | 590 | +5.1 | +30.1 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 552 | +5.4 | +29.7 |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | 647 | +3.8 | +24.7 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | 534 | +4.5 | +23.8 |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | 591 | +3.6 | +21.5 |
| 6 | Tennessee Titans | 534 | +3.3 | +17.4 |
| 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | 625 | +2.7 | +16.6 |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 494 | +3.3 | +16.4 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 729 | +2.0 | +14.7 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 674 | +1.8 | +12.2 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | 540 | +2.2 | +11.8 |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 599 | +1.9 | +11.6 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams | 607 | +1.7 | +10.6 |
| 14 | Buffalo Bills | 655 | +1.5 | +9.9 |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 572 | +1.7 | +9.6 |
| 16 | San Francisco 49ers | 511 | +1.6 | +8.3 |
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 604 | +0.9 | +5.4 |
| 18 | Los Angeles Chargers | 673 | +0.7 | +4.7 |
| 19 | Detroit Lions | 587 | +0.7 | +4.0 |
| 20 | Washington Commanders | 547 | +0.5 | +2.9 |
| 21 | Miami Dolphins | 613 | +0.2 | +1.0 |
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | 492 | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| 23 | Houston Texans | 543 | -0.9 | -5.0 |
| 24 | Chicago Bears | 539 | -1.6 | -8.4 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 661 | -1.5 | -9.8 |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | 517 | -1.9 | -9.8 |
| 27 | Indianapolis Colts | 521 | -2.1 | -11.0 |
| 28 | New York Giants | 589 | -4.6 | -27.2 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 601 | -4.8 | -28.8 |
| 30 | New Orleans Saints | 501 | -6.7 | -33.5 |
| 31 | New York Jets | 602 | -6.7 | -40.2 |
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | 597 | -7.3 | -43.6 |
Quarterback Rankings, All Qualified Quarterbacks
| Rk | Player | Team | GS | Cmp-Att | Yds | TD | INT | Rate | ANY/A | ACE | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 16 | 366-531 | 4,115 | 37 | 4 | 111.9 | 8.00 | +33.1 | +0.25 |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 17 | 436-658 | 4,839 | 37 | 13 | 98.5 | 7.07 | +11.1 | +0.23 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | TB | 17 | 485-719 | 5,316 | 43 | 12 | 102.1 | 7.41 | +15.3 | +0.20 |
| 4 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 15 | 301-441 | 3,810 | 20 | 12 | 98.7 | 7.38 | +11.2 | +0.19 |
| 5 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 16 | 366-520 | 4,611 | 34 | 14 | 108.3 | 7.51 | +34.0 | +0.19 |
| 6 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 17 | 443-672 | 5,014 | 38 | 15 | 97.7 | 6.95 | +5.8 | +0.19 |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 17 | 404-601 | 4,886 | 41 | 17 | 102.9 | 7.45 | +12.4 | +0.19 |
| 8 | Josh Allen | BUF | 17 | 409-646 | 4,407 | 36 | 15 | 92.2 | 6.38 | +10.1 | +0.18 |
| 9 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 16 | 410-596 | 4,449 | 37 | 10 | 104.2 | 7.34 | +23.9 | +0.17 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 14 | 333-481 | 3,787 | 24 | 10 | 100.6 | 6.90 | +15.1 | +0.15 |
| 11 | Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | 14 | 285-426 | 3,052 | 18 | 7 | 94.9 | 6.32 | +15.0 | +0.13 |
| 12 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 16 | 372-561 | 4,221 | 33 | 7 | 103.1 | 7.42 | +13.2 | +0.12 |
| 13 | Mac Jones | NE | 17 | 352-521 | 3,801 | 22 | 13 | 92.5 | 6.22 | +20.5 | +0.10 |
| 14 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 15 | 265-432 | 3,144 | 16 | 9 | 87.2 | 6.35 | -3.7 | +0.09 |
| 15 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 17 | 357-531 | 3,734 | 21 | 14 | 89.6 | 5.53 | +17.7 | +0.08 |
| 16 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 12 | 246-382 | 2,882 | 16 | 13 | 87.0 | 5.78 | +3.4 | +0.07 |
| 17 | Derek Carr | LV | 17 | 428-626 | 4,804 | 23 | 14 | 94.0 | 6.60 | +16.8 | +0.07 |
| 18 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 12 | 263-388 | 2,653 | 16 | 10 | 90.1 | 5.81 | +6.7 | +0.06 |
| 19 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 14 | 259-400 | 3,113 | 25 | 6 | 103.1 | 7.11 | +13.7 | +0.06 |
| 20 | Carson Wentz | IND | 17 | 322-516 | 3,563 | 27 | 7 | 94.6 | 6.50 | -9.8 | +0.03 |
| 21 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 17 | 375-560 | 3,968 | 20 | 12 | 90.4 | 5.92 | +15.6 | +0.01 |
| 22 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 14 | 253-418 | 3,010 | 17 | 13 | 83.1 | 5.41 | -13.0 | +0.00 |
| 23 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 11 | 232-361 | 2,428 | 10 | 7 | 84.8 | 5.62 | -0.1 | -0.02 |
| 24 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | 15 | 321-494 | 3,419 | 20 | 15 | 85.9 | 5.39 | +4.9 | -0.02 |
| 25 | Jared Goff | DET | 14 | 332-494 | 3,245 | 19 | 8 | 91.5 | 5.64 | +3.8 | -0.05 |
| 26 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 16 | 390-605 | 3,740 | 22 | 10 | 86.8 | 5.43 | -7.8 | -0.06 |
| 27 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 17 | 359-602 | 3,641 | 12 | 17 | 71.9 | 4.54 | -29.6 | -0.07 |
| 28 | Davis Mills | HOU | 11 | 263-394 | 2,664 | 16 | 10 | 88.8 | 5.48 | +1.3 | -0.12 |
| 29 | Justin Fields | CHI | 10 | 159-270 | 1,870 | 7 | 10 | 73.2 | 4.24 | -3.5 | -0.12 |
| 30 | Sam Darnold | CAR | 12 | 243-406 | 2,527 | 9 | 13 | 71.9 | 4.35 | -24.4 | -0.14 |
| 31 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 13 | 213-383 | 2,334 | 9 | 11 | 69.7 | 3.86 | -38.4 | -0.19 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016
QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
All Posts →Understanding the Throw.
What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
What CPOE Means, and How ACE Builds on It
Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
Read Article →Why Sacks Belong Partly to the Quarterback
A sack is the rush, the line and the decision. Why our dropback stats count them.
Read Article →FROM THE A-GAME PODCAST
Listen to the Episode ↗10 Mind-Body Performance Recovery Tools Backed By Science
Learn the break down of ten mind-body recovery tools, each backed by science, including how and when to use them to perform at your peak.