Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →NFL Quarterback Stats 2026 (through Week 9): Every NFL Pass
Quarterback and receiver stats for every NFL season since 2016, built from the play-by-play: every pass on a throw map, the hardest completions and costliest misses of each week, and rankings by EPA per dropback and ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation).
QB Leaders: EPA per Dropback
| Rk | Player | Team | Dropbacks | EPA/DB | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 237 | +0.35 | +5.6 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | SF | 261 | +0.34 | +12.2 |
| 3 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 245 | +0.30 | +4.9 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 321 | +0.28 | +30.5 |
| 5 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 227 | +0.24 | +7.7 |
| 6 | Jared Goff | DET | 298 | +0.22 | +8.4 |
| 7 | Drake Maye | NE | 318 | +0.21 | +8.7 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | GB | 360 | +0.20 | +3.0 |
| 9 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 304 | +0.19 | +5.2 |
| 10 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 368 | +0.19 | +4.2 |
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 35% chance+0.65
Missed 5-yard throw, 79% chance−0.79
Top Passing Teams
- 1. Buffalo Bills +0.35
- 2. San Francisco 49ers +0.34
- 3. Jacksonville Jaguars +0.29
- 4. Cincinnati Bengals +0.28
- 5. Detroit Lions +0.23
Top Connections
- 1. Dak Prescott → CeeDee Lamb 904 yds
- 2. Jordan Love → Christian Watson 879 yds
- 3. Jordan Love → Matthew Golden 783 yds
- 4. Joe Burrow → Tee Higgins 758 yds
- 5. Tyler Shough → Chris Olave 734 yds
Explore the Rankings
NFL quarterbacks, receivers and QB-to-receiver connections: leaders, every leaderboard and a full ranking table for each.
QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
All Posts →Understanding the Throw.
What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
What CPOE Means, and How ACE Builds on It
Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
Read Article →Why Sacks Belong Partly to the Quarterback
A sack is the rush, the line and the decision. Why our dropback stats count them.
Read Article →FROM THE A-GAME PODCAST
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