Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2022 NFL Quarterback Rankings
Ranked by EPA per Dropback. Qualified: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 2022 regular season.
2022 Leaders
EPA per Dropback
- 1Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs+0.32
- 2Josh Allen Buffalo Bills+0.24
- 3Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins+0.23
- 4Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers+0.23
- 5Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles+0.19
ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)
- 1Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks+28.6
- 2Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals+17.9
- 3Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs+13.8
- 4Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings+11.3
- 5Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers+10.7
NFL Passer Rating
- 1Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins105.5
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs105.2
- 3Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers103.0
- 4Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles101.5
- 5Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks100.9
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- 1Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins8.37
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs7.93
- 3Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers7.60
- 4Jared Goff Detroit Lions7.45
- 5Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles7.31
Completion %
- 1Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks69.8%
- 2Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals68.3%
- 3Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers68.2%
- 4Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams68.0%
- 5Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers67.2%
Passing Yards
- 1Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs5,250
- 2Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers4,739
- 3Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers4,694
- 4Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings4,547
- 5Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals4,475
Passing Touchdowns
- 1Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs41
- 2Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals35
- 3Josh Allen Buffalo Bills35
- 4Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks30
- 5Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings29
Success Rate
- 1Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs53.3%
- 2Josh Allen Buffalo Bills52.2%
- 3Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville Jaguars50.4%
- 4Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals50.2%
- 5Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers49.8%
Game-Winning Drives
- 1Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings8
- 2Daniel Jones New York Giants5
- 3Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers5
- 4Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers4
- 5Josh Allen Buffalo Bills4
All 2022 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 36% chance+0.64
Missed 5-yard throw, 79% chance−0.79
2022 ACE Rankings: Quarterbacks
| # | Quarterback | Team | Cmp-Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geno Smith | SEA | 399-572 | +5.0 | +28.6 |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 414-606 | +3.0 | +17.9 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 435-648 | +2.1 | +13.8 |
| 4 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 424-643 | +1.8 | +11.3 |
| 5 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 477-699 | +1.5 | +10.7 |
| 6 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 317-472 | +2.1 | +9.7 |
| 7 | Josh Allen | BUF | 359-567 | +1.2 | +6.8 |
| 8 | Jacoby Brissett | CLE | 236-369 | +1.8 | +6.8 |
| 9 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 387-584 | +0.9 | +5.4 |
| 10 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 259-400 | +1.3 | +5.1 |
| 11 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 212-325 | +1.5 | +4.9 |
| 12 | Andy Dalton | NO | 252-378 | +1.3 | +4.8 |
| 13 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 306-460 | +1.0 | +4.6 |
| 14 | Tom Brady | TB | 490-733 | +0.4 | +3.2 |
| 15 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 261-394 | +0.8 | +3.2 |
| 16 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 206-303 | +0.8 | +2.5 |
| 17 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 350-542 | +0.3 | +1.7 |
| 18 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 207-308 | +0.5 | +1.7 |
| 19 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | 161-259 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| 20 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | 184-300 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| 21 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | 245-389 | -0.4 | -1.4 |
| 22 | Mac Jones | NE | 288-442 | -0.4 | -1.9 |
| 23 | Matt Ryan | IND | 309-461 | -0.5 | -2.5 |
| 24 | Jared Goff | DET | 382-587 | -0.5 | -2.7 |
| 25 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 259-390 | -1.3 | -5.2 |
| 26 | Justin Fields | CHI | 192-318 | -1.9 | -6.0 |
| 27 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 203-326 | -2.3 | -7.5 |
| 28 | Carson Wentz | WAS | 172-276 | -3.5 | -9.7 |
| 29 | Russell Wilson | DEN | 292-483 | -2.9 | -14.2 |
| 30 | Davis Mills | HOU | 292-479 | -3.9 | -18.4 |
| 31 | Derek Carr | LV | 305-502 | -3.8 | -19.2 |
| 32 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | 201-335 | -6.6 | -22.2 |
| 33 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 132-242 | -9.4 | -22.8 |
2022 ACE Rankings: Teams
| # | Team | Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 571 | +4.9 | +28.1 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 609 | +3.2 | +19.2 |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | 669 | +2.5 | +16.6 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 651 | +1.8 | +11.5 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 709 | +1.4 | +10.1 |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints | 510 | +1.9 | +9.7 |
| 7 | New York Giants | 515 | +1.3 | +7.0 |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 594 | +0.7 | +4.1 |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills | 573 | +0.7 | +4.1 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 569 | +0.5 | +2.7 |
| 11 | New England Patriots | 538 | +0.4 | +2.4 |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers | 560 | +0.4 | +2.1 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 748 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | 535 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Miami Dolphins | 583 | -0.1 | -0.9 |
| 16 | Atlanta Falcons | 411 | -0.5 | -1.9 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | 587 | -0.4 | -2.3 |
| 18 | San Francisco 49ers | 512 | -0.5 | -2.4 |
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 535 | -0.6 | -3.0 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Rams | 529 | -0.7 | -3.9 |
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | 455 | -0.9 | -4.3 |
| 22 | Dallas Cowboys | 555 | -1.3 | -7.4 |
| 23 | Indianapolis Colts | 603 | -1.4 | -8.7 |
| 24 | Chicago Bears | 376 | -2.9 | -10.9 |
| 25 | Washington Commanders | 552 | -2.0 | -11.0 |
| 26 | Baltimore Ravens | 482 | -2.5 | -12.3 |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals | 660 | -2.0 | -13.3 |
| 28 | Denver Broncos | 570 | -2.9 | -16.6 |
| 29 | Las Vegas Raiders | 586 | -2.9 | -17.0 |
| 30 | Houston Texans | 578 | -4.7 | -27.2 |
| 31 | Carolina Panthers | 454 | -7.4 | -33.6 |
| 32 | New York Jets | 627 | -6.8 | -42.4 |
Quarterback Rankings, All Qualified Quarterbacks
| Rk | Player | Team | GS | Cmp-Att | Yds | TD | INT | Rate | ANY/A | ACE | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 17 | 435-648 | 5,250 | 41 | 12 | 105.2 | 7.93 | +13.8 | +0.32 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | BUF | 16 | 359-567 | 4,283 | 35 | 14 | 96.6 | 6.99 | +6.8 | +0.24 |
| 3 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 13 | 259-400 | 3,548 | 25 | 8 | 105.5 | 8.37 | +5.1 | +0.23 |
| 4 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 10 | 207-308 | 2,437 | 16 | 4 | 103.0 | 7.60 | +1.7 | +0.23 |
| 5 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 15 | 306-460 | 3,701 | 22 | 6 | 101.5 | 7.31 | +4.6 | +0.19 |
| 6 | Jared Goff | DET | 17 | 382-587 | 4,438 | 29 | 7 | 99.3 | 7.45 | -2.7 | +0.16 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 16 | 414-606 | 4,475 | 35 | 12 | 100.8 | 6.76 | +17.9 | +0.16 |
| 8 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 17 | 387-584 | 4,113 | 25 | 8 | 95.2 | 6.66 | +5.4 | +0.15 |
| 9 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 12 | 261-394 | 2,860 | 23 | 15 | 91.1 | 6.08 | +3.2 | +0.09 |
| 10 | Jacoby Brissett | CLE | 11 | 236-369 | 2,608 | 12 | 6 | 88.9 | 6.15 | +6.8 | +0.09 |
| 11 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 16 | 317-472 | 3,205 | 15 | 5 | 92.5 | 5.89 | +9.7 | +0.09 |
| 12 | Geno Smith | SEA | 17 | 399-572 | 4,282 | 30 | 11 | 100.9 | 6.54 | +28.6 | +0.08 |
| 13 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 12 | 212-325 | 2,536 | 13 | 6 | 94.6 | 6.39 | +4.9 | +0.08 |
| 14 | Tom Brady | TB | 16 | 490-733 | 4,694 | 25 | 9 | 90.7 | 6.13 | +3.2 | +0.08 |
| 15 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 12 | 203-326 | 2,242 | 17 | 7 | 91.1 | 6.12 | -7.5 | +0.06 |
| 16 | Derek Carr | LV | 15 | 305-502 | 3,522 | 24 | 14 | 86.3 | 6.01 | -19.2 | +0.06 |
| 17 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 17 | 477-699 | 4,739 | 25 | 10 | 93.2 | 6.22 | +10.7 | +0.05 |
| 18 | Andy Dalton | NO | 13 | 252-378 | 2,871 | 18 | 9 | 95.2 | 6.54 | +4.8 | +0.04 |
| 19 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 17 | 424-643 | 4,547 | 29 | 14 | 92.5 | 6.05 | +11.3 | +0.04 |
| 20 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | 13 | 184-300 | 2,219 | 15 | 9 | 88.2 | 5.85 | -0.0 | +0.04 |
| 21 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 17 | 350-542 | 3,695 | 26 | 12 | 91.1 | 5.95 | +1.7 | +0.01 |
| 22 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 11 | 259-390 | 2,368 | 14 | 7 | 87.2 | 5.16 | -5.2 | -0.01 |
| 23 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | 13 | 245-389 | 2,404 | 7 | 9 | 76.7 | 4.70 | -1.4 | -0.01 |
| 24 | Justin Fields | CHI | 15 | 192-318 | 2,242 | 17 | 11 | 85.2 | 4.63 | -6.0 | -0.03 |
| 25 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | 9 | 161-259 | 1,859 | 12 | 6 | 89.6 | 6.07 | +0.1 | -0.04 |
| 26 | Mac Jones | NE | 14 | 288-442 | 2,997 | 14 | 11 | 84.8 | 5.36 | -1.9 | -0.04 |
| 27 | Matt Ryan | IND | 11 | 309-461 | 3,057 | 14 | 13 | 83.9 | 4.94 | -2.5 | -0.04 |
| 28 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 9 | 206-303 | 2,087 | 10 | 8 | 87.4 | 5.18 | +2.5 | -0.07 |
| 29 | Russell Wilson | DEN | 15 | 292-483 | 3,524 | 16 | 11 | 84.4 | 5.54 | -14.2 | -0.07 |
| 30 | Carson Wentz | WAS | 7 | 172-276 | 1,755 | 11 | 9 | 80.2 | 4.67 | -9.7 | -0.10 |
| 31 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 9 | 132-242 | 1,688 | 6 | 7 | 72.8 | 4.97 | -22.8 | -0.10 |
| 32 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | 10 | 201-335 | 2,163 | 10 | 8 | 79.0 | 4.81 | -22.2 | -0.12 |
| 33 | Davis Mills | HOU | 15 | 292-479 | 3,118 | 17 | 15 | 78.8 | 4.98 | -18.4 | -0.13 |
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