Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2020 NFL Quarterback Rankings
Ranked by EPA per Dropback. Qualified: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 2020 regular season.
2020 Leaders
EPA per Dropback
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers+0.36
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs+0.32
- 3Josh Allen Buffalo Bills+0.30
- 4Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans+0.27
- 5Deshaun Watson Houston Texans+0.24
ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers+37.4
- 2Deshaun Watson Houston Texans+35.6
- 3Josh Allen Buffalo Bills+35.2
- 4Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks+32.7
- 5Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers+22.2
NFL Passer Rating
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers121.5
- 2Deshaun Watson Houston Texans112.4
- 3Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs108.2
- 4Josh Allen Buffalo Bills107.2
- 5Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans106.5
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers8.89
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs8.33
- 3Deshaun Watson Houston Texans8.22
- 4Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans7.90
- 5Josh Allen Buffalo Bills7.82
Completion %
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers70.7%
- 2Drew Brees New Orleans Saints70.5%
- 3Deshaun Watson Houston Texans70.2%
- 4Josh Allen Buffalo Bills69.2%
- 5Teddy Bridgewater Carolina Panthers69.1%
Passing Yards
- 1Deshaun Watson Houston Texans4,823
- 2Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs4,740
- 3Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers4,633
- 4Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons4,581
- 5Josh Allen Buffalo Bills4,544
Passing Touchdowns
- 1Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers48
- 2Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers40
- 3Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks40
- 4Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs38
- 5Josh Allen Buffalo Bills37
Success Rate
- 1Josh Allen Buffalo Bills55.7%
- 2Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers54.5%
- 3Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs53.9%
- 4Ryan Fitzpatrick Miami Dolphins53.9%
- 5Mitchell Trubisky Chicago Bears53.6%
Game-Winning Drives
- 1Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans6
- 2Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers4
- 3Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals4
- 4Andy Dalton Dallas Cowboys3
- 5Derek Carr Las Vegas Raiders3
All 2020 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
ACE Ranking
"Accuracy Compared to Expectation" = completions − expected completion chance, summed over every pass attempt
ACE is QuarterbackStats.com's rating for passers, built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE). Every throw has a chance of being caught, based on how far it travels, where it goes, the down and distance, pressure and the weather. Complete a hard throw and you earn a lot. Miss an easy one and you lose a lot. Add it up for the season.
Completed 35-yard throw, 34% chance+0.66
Missed 5-yard throw, 79% chance−0.79
2020 ACE Rankings: Quarterbacks
| # | Quarterback | Team | Cmp-Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 372-526 | +7.2 | +37.4 |
| 2 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | 382-544 | +6.6 | +35.6 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | BUF | 396-572 | +6.2 | +35.2 |
| 4 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 384-558 | +5.9 | +32.7 |
| 5 | Tom Brady | TB | 401-610 | +3.7 | +22.2 |
| 6 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 349-516 | +3.7 | +18.9 |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 390-588 | +3.2 | +18.8 |
| 8 | Teddy Bridgewater | CAR | 340-492 | +3.6 | +17.6 |
| 9 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 315-481 | +3.4 | +16.3 |
| 10 | Derek Carr | LV | 348-517 | +2.9 | +14.8 |
| 11 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 264-404 | +3.7 | +14.6 |
| 12 | Drew Brees | NO | 275-390 | +3.4 | +13.2 |
| 13 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 183-267 | +4.9 | +13.1 |
| 14 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 199-297 | +3.6 | +10.8 |
| 15 | Philip Rivers | IND | 369-543 | +1.6 | +8.6 |
| 16 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 375-558 | +1.5 | +8.0 |
| 17 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 396-595 | +1.2 | +7.2 |
| 18 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 305-486 | +1.2 | +5.9 |
| 19 | Gardner Minshew | JAX | 216-327 | +1.8 | +5.8 |
| 20 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 407-626 | +0.9 | +5.6 |
| 21 | Nick Foles | CHI | 202-312 | +1.7 | +5.4 |
| 22 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 242-376 | +1.3 | +4.9 |
| 23 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 399-608 | +0.5 | +3.1 |
| 24 | Jared Goff | LA | 370-552 | +0.2 | +1.0 |
| 25 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 339-528 | +0.0 | +0.2 |
| 26 | Cam Newton | NE | 242-368 | -0.7 | -2.6 |
| 27 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 186-290 | -1.2 | -3.4 |
| 28 | Alex Smith | WAS | 168-252 | -1.7 | -4.2 |
| 29 | Andy Dalton | DAL | 216-333 | -1.3 | -4.3 |
| 30 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 280-448 | -1.0 | -4.4 |
| 31 | Nick Mullens | SF | 211-326 | -1.6 | -5.3 |
| 32 | Dwayne Haskins | WAS | 148-241 | -4.2 | -10.1 |
| 33 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | 217-364 | -3.4 | -12.3 |
| 34 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 251-437 | -4.0 | -17.6 |
| 35 | Drew Lock | DEN | 254-443 | -5.3 | -23.5 |
2020 ACE Rankings: Teams
| # | Team | Att | ACE/100 | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers | 523 | +7.2 | +37.4 |
| 2 | Houston Texans | 544 | +6.5 | +35.5 |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | 596 | +5.9 | +34.9 |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 562 | +6.0 | +33.5 |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints | 520 | +4.2 | +21.6 |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 629 | +3.4 | +21.5 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 621 | +3.3 | +20.2 |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 513 | +3.7 | +18.9 |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | 611 | +2.4 | +14.9 |
| 10 | Carolina Panthers | 548 | +2.7 | +14.8 |
| 11 | Tennessee Titans | 485 | +3.0 | +14.8 |
| 12 | Las Vegas Raiders | 546 | +2.6 | +14.4 |
| 13 | Miami Dolphins | 555 | +1.7 | +9.7 |
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals | 577 | +1.5 | +8.5 |
| 15 | Arizona Cardinals | 567 | +1.4 | +8.1 |
| 16 | Cleveland Browns | 496 | +1.3 | +6.7 |
| 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 626 | +1.0 | +6.2 |
| 18 | Los Angeles Chargers | 623 | +0.8 | +5.0 |
| 19 | Indianapolis Colts | 549 | +0.8 | +4.6 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 656 | +0.4 | +2.9 |
| 21 | Baltimore Ravens | 403 | +0.3 | +1.3 |
| 22 | Detroit Lions | 573 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| 23 | Los Angeles Rams | 588 | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| 24 | San Francisco 49ers | 569 | -0.8 | -4.4 |
| 25 | New York Giants | 515 | -1.0 | -4.9 |
| 26 | Dallas Cowboys | 635 | -0.8 | -5.2 |
| 27 | New England Patriots | 438 | -1.8 | -8.1 |
| 28 | Washington Commanders | 599 | -1.8 | -10.6 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 613 | -1.8 | -11.3 |
| 30 | New York Jets | 496 | -3.5 | -17.5 |
| 31 | Denver Broncos | 554 | -5.0 | -27.8 |
| 32 | Philadelphia Eagles | 596 | -5.8 | -34.3 |
Quarterback Rankings, All Qualified Quarterbacks
| Rk | Player | Team | GS | Cmp-Att | Yds | TD | INT | Rate | ANY/A | ACE | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 16 | 372-526 | 4,299 | 48 | 5 | 121.5 | 8.89 | +37.4 | +0.36 |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 15 | 390-588 | 4,740 | 38 | 6 | 108.2 | 8.33 | +18.8 | +0.32 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | BUF | 16 | 396-572 | 4,544 | 37 | 10 | 107.2 | 7.82 | +35.2 | +0.30 |
| 4 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 16 | 315-481 | 3,819 | 33 | 7 | 106.5 | 7.90 | +16.3 | +0.27 |
| 5 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | 16 | 382-544 | 4,823 | 33 | 7 | 112.4 | 8.22 | +35.6 | +0.24 |
| 6 | Tom Brady | TB | 16 | 401-610 | 4,633 | 40 | 12 | 102.2 | 7.53 | +22.2 | +0.21 |
| 7 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 16 | 305-486 | 3,563 | 26 | 8 | 95.9 | 6.96 | +5.9 | +0.19 |
| 8 | Philip Rivers | IND | 16 | 369-543 | 4,169 | 24 | 11 | 97.0 | 7.18 | +8.6 | +0.19 |
| 9 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 16 | 349-516 | 4,265 | 35 | 13 | 105.0 | 7.43 | +18.9 | +0.18 |
| 10 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 7 | 183-267 | 2,091 | 13 | 8 | 95.6 | 6.85 | +13.1 | +0.18 |
| 11 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 15 | 242-376 | 2,757 | 26 | 9 | 99.3 | 6.70 | +4.9 | +0.17 |
| 12 | Drew Brees | NO | 12 | 275-390 | 2,942 | 24 | 6 | 106.4 | 7.60 | +13.2 | +0.17 |
| 13 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 15 | 396-595 | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 98.3 | 6.84 | +7.2 | +0.15 |
| 14 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 16 | 384-558 | 4,212 | 40 | 13 | 105.1 | 6.82 | +32.7 | +0.14 |
| 15 | Derek Carr | LV | 16 | 348-517 | 4,103 | 27 | 9 | 101.4 | 7.53 | +14.8 | +0.13 |
| 16 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 9 | 199-297 | 2,055 | 16 | 8 | 93.5 | 6.00 | +10.8 | +0.12 |
| 17 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 16 | 339-528 | 4,084 | 26 | 10 | 96.3 | 6.89 | +0.2 | +0.12 |
| 18 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 16 | 407-626 | 4,581 | 26 | 11 | 93.3 | 6.52 | +5.6 | +0.12 |
| 19 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 15 | 375-558 | 3,971 | 26 | 12 | 94.3 | 6.45 | +8.0 | +0.11 |
| 20 | Teddy Bridgewater | CAR | 15 | 340-492 | 3,733 | 15 | 11 | 92.1 | 6.37 | +17.6 | +0.10 |
| 21 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 10 | 264-404 | 2,688 | 13 | 5 | 89.8 | 5.72 | +14.6 | +0.10 |
| 22 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 15 | 399-608 | 3,803 | 33 | 10 | 94.1 | 6.27 | +3.1 | +0.09 |
| 23 | Gardner Minshew | JAX | 8 | 216-327 | 2,259 | 16 | 5 | 95.9 | 6.23 | +5.8 | +0.08 |
| 24 | Jared Goff | LA | 15 | 370-552 | 3,952 | 20 | 13 | 90.0 | 6.27 | +1.0 | +0.04 |
| 25 | Cam Newton | NE | 15 | 242-368 | 2,657 | 8 | 10 | 82.9 | 5.44 | -2.6 | +0.01 |
| 26 | Nick Mullens | SF | 8 | 211-326 | 2,437 | 12 | 12 | 84.1 | 5.79 | -5.3 | +0.01 |
| 27 | Andy Dalton | DAL | 9 | 216-333 | 2,170 | 14 | 8 | 87.3 | 5.34 | -4.3 | -0.01 |
| 28 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 9 | 186-290 | 1,814 | 11 | 5 | 87.1 | 5.40 | -3.4 | -0.02 |
| 29 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 14 | 280-448 | 2,943 | 11 | 10 | 80.4 | 4.92 | -4.4 | -0.02 |
| 30 | Drew Lock | DEN | 13 | 254-443 | 2,933 | 16 | 15 | 75.4 | 5.31 | -23.5 | -0.06 |
| 31 | Nick Foles | CHI | 7 | 202-312 | 1,852 | 10 | 8 | 80.8 | 4.69 | +5.4 | -0.10 |
| 32 | Alex Smith | WAS | 6 | 168-252 | 1,582 | 6 | 8 | 78.5 | 4.39 | -4.2 | -0.12 |
| 33 | Dwayne Haskins | WAS | 6 | 148-241 | 1,439 | 5 | 7 | 73.0 | 4.15 | -10.1 | -0.13 |
| 34 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 12 | 251-437 | 2,620 | 16 | 15 | 72.8 | 3.98 | -17.6 | -0.14 |
| 35 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | 12 | 217-364 | 2,208 | 9 | 11 | 72.7 | 4.16 | -12.3 | -0.16 |
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QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
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