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2024 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2024 leaders: Joe Burrow (+41.3), Jared Goff (+31.8), Baker Mayfield (+23.4).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 36 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Joe BurrowQBCIN652721+41.3
2Jared GoffQBDET539581+31.8
3Baker MayfieldQBTB570651+23.4
4Geno SmithQBSEA578650+22.7
5Tua TagovailoaQBMIA399425+19.1
6Lamar JacksonQBBAL474538+16.9
7Jayden DanielsQBWAS480597+14.0
8Jalen HurtsQBPHI361437+13.4
9Patrick MahomesQBKC581652+13.4
10Sam DarnoldQBMIN545620+13.1
11Brock PurdyQBSF455525+11.6
12Justin HerbertQBLAC504573+11.5
13Kirk CousinsQBATL453480+8.6
14Kyler MurrayQBARI541611+6.4
15Russell WilsonQBPIT336387+5.5
16Derek CarrQBNO279295+4.3
17Matthew StaffordQBLA517547+4.0
18Joe FlaccoQBIND248269+3.9
19Drake MayeQBNE338416+3.1
20Jordan LoveQBGB425451+2.7
21Bo NixQBDEN567640+1.5
22Dak PrescottQBDAL286311+0.0
23Gardner MinshewQBLV306343-0.8
24Josh AllenQBBUF483539-1.5
25Daniel JonesQBNYG341381-2.8
26Will LevisQBTEN301362-3.9
27Mac JonesQBJAX262290-4.5
28Aidan O'ConnellQBLV243255-5.3
29Jameis WinstonQBCLE296327-5.8
30C.J. StroudQBHOU532620-6.1
31Bryce YoungQBCAR384450-7.5
32Trevor LawrenceQBJAX284314-8.9
33Caleb WilliamsQBCHI562676-11.2
34Aaron RodgersQBNYJ584640-14.1
35Cooper RushQBDAL308324-19.5
36Anthony RichardsonQBIND264297-30.9

More 2024 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

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