Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →Completion % on throws of 20+ air yards (minimum 2 deep attempts per team game).
The 2019 leaders: Gardner Minshew (46.0%), Patrick Mahomes (44.9%), Dak Prescott (43.4%).
Minimum to rank: deep >= 2 × team games. 28 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | Deep Cmp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gardner Minshew | QB | JAX | 470 | 552 | 46.0% |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 484 | 524 | 44.9% |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 596 | 638 | 43.4% |
| 4 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 616 | 685 | 41.4% |
| 5 | Deshaun Watson | QB | HOU | 495 | 580 | 40.8% |
| 6 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 516 | 606 | 40.8% |
| 7 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 542 | 614 | 40.6% |
| 8 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | 291 | 316 | 39.7% |
| 9 | Tom Brady | QB | NE | 613 | 643 | 39.1% |
| 10 | Derek Carr | QB | LV | 513 | 554 | 39.0% |
| 11 | Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 444 | 481 | 38.1% |
| 12 | Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | 607 | 671 | 37.7% |
| 13 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | MIA | 502 | 574 | 36.2% |
| 14 | Jameis Winston | QB | TB | 626 | 704 | 36.0% |
| 15 | Baker Mayfield | QB | CLE | 534 | 589 | 36.0% |
| 16 | Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | 528 | 568 | 34.7% |
| 17 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 401 | 459 | 34.5% |
| 18 | Philip Rivers | QB | LAC | 591 | 628 | 34.2% |
| 19 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | 286 | 329 | 33.3% |
| 20 | Mitchell Trubisky | QB | CHI | 516 | 573 | 32.8% |
| 21 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 569 | 630 | 32.7% |
| 22 | Jared Goff | QB | LA | 626 | 657 | 32.1% |
| 23 | Sam Darnold | QB | NYJ | 441 | 481 | 30.8% |
| 24 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 459 | 524 | 29.6% |
| 25 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | IND | 447 | 503 | 28.6% |
| 26 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 461 | 540 | 25.7% |
| 27 | Kyle Allen | QB | CAR | 489 | 553 | 22.4% |
| 28 | Mason Rudolph | QB | PIT | 283 | 308 | 22.0% |
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
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What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
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