Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →The share of dropbacks with positive EPA, meaning the play left the offense better off than before it. We use the same rule in both leagues so the numbers compare.
How to read it. Around 45% is average for a starter; 50% is excellent.
The 2019 leaders: Ryan Tannehill (55.6%), Drew Brees (54.0%), Dak Prescott (52.4%).
Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 32 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | Success |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | 286 | 329 | 55.6% |
| 2 | Drew Brees | QB | NO | 378 | 385 | 54.0% |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 596 | 638 | 52.4% |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 484 | 524 | 50.4% |
| 5 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 401 | 459 | 50.1% |
| 6 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | SF | 476 | 522 | 50.0% |
| 7 | Philip Rivers | QB | LAC | 591 | 628 | 49.8% |
| 8 | Derek Carr | QB | LV | 513 | 554 | 49.6% |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | 291 | 316 | 49.4% |
| 10 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 516 | 606 | 49.3% |
| 11 | Deshaun Watson | QB | HOU | 495 | 580 | 48.8% |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | QB | TB | 626 | 704 | 48.0% |
| 13 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | MIA | 502 | 574 | 47.4% |
| 14 | Kyle Allen | QB | CAR | 489 | 553 | 47.2% |
| 15 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 616 | 685 | 47.0% |
| 16 | Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 444 | 481 | 47.0% |
| 17 | Case Keenum | QB | WAS | 247 | 263 | 46.8% |
| 18 | Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | 607 | 671 | 46.6% |
| 19 | Jared Goff | QB | LA | 626 | 657 | 46.6% |
| 20 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | IND | 447 | 503 | 44.9% |
| 21 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 569 | 630 | 44.3% |
| 22 | Mitchell Trubisky | QB | CHI | 516 | 573 | 43.5% |
| 23 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 461 | 540 | 43.0% |
| 24 | Gardner Minshew | QB | JAX | 470 | 552 | 42.8% |
| 25 | Baker Mayfield | QB | CLE | 534 | 589 | 42.6% |
| 26 | Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | 528 | 568 | 42.6% |
| 27 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 542 | 614 | 42.5% |
| 28 | Joe Flacco | QB | DEN | 262 | 292 | 42.5% |
| 29 | Sam Darnold | QB | NYJ | 441 | 481 | 42.4% |
| 30 | Tom Brady | QB | NE | 613 | 643 | 42.0% |
| 31 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 459 | 524 | 41.8% |
| 32 | Mason Rudolph | QB | PIT | 283 | 308 | 39.3% |
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
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What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
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