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2025 College ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

2025 is a partial season for depth and direction: the play-by-play started recording where passes went in Week 9.

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2025 leaders: Julian Sayin (+20.2), Fernando Mendoza (+19.4), Carson Beck (+15.7).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 15 pass attempts per team game (the NCAA's minimum for passing efficiency). 120 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Julian SayinQBOSU356401+20.2
2Fernando MendozaQBIU316398+19.4
3Carson BeckQBMIA353473+15.7
4Haynes KingQBGT321367+15.5
5Darian MensahQBDUKE449512+15.2
6Drew MestemakerQBUNT418469+14.9
7Gio LopezQBUNC261271+14.1
8Trinidad ChamblissQBMISS333456+14.1
9Diego PaviaQBVAN340384+14.0
10Brad JacksonQBTXST328379+13.7
11Owen McCownQBUTSA381400+13.4
12Gunner StocktonQBUGA355401+11.3
13Brendon LewisQBMEM343400+11.2
14Dante MooreQBORE313416+11.1
15Anthony ColandreaQBUNLV387427+10.7
16Joey AguilarQBTENN386414+10.2
17Conner WeigmanQBHOU319370+8.8
18Byrum BrownQBUSF341350+8.8
19Cutter BoleyQBUK301317+8.6
20Zevi EckhausQBWSU262322+8.6
21Tucker GleasonQBTOL320321+8.5
22JC French IVQBGASO365414+8.4
23Joe FagnanoQBCONN412412+8.3
24CJ CarrQBND293301+8.2
25Noah KimQBEMU402416+7.6
26Caden VeltkampQBFAU514511+7.4
27Cade KlubnikQBCLEM353398+7.3
28Micah AlejadoQBHAW384433+7.3
29Jaylen RaynorQBARST469535+7.2
30Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQBCAL452523+6.8
31Jackson BrousseauQBCSU201221+6.8
32Bear BachmeierQBBYU349395+6.4
33Jayden MaiavaQBUSC373399+6.4
34Baylor HayesQBTLSA316334+6.0
35CJ BaileyQBNCSU372409+5.7
36Demond Williams Jr.QBWASH330366+5.4
37Mason HeintschelQBPITT276340+5.4
38DJ LagwayQBFLA337341+4.7
39Bishop DavenportQBUSA294311+4.0
40Zane FloresQBOKST262281+3.9
41Tayven JacksonQBUCF315323+3.7
42Dylan LonerganQBBC284296+3.6
43Garrett NussmeierQBLSU288300+3.4
44Josh HooverQBTCU413422+3.3
45Kevin JenningsQBSMU422462+3.2
46Jalen KitnaQBUAB337336+3.2
47Dylan RaiolaQBNEB250276+3.2
48Mark GronowskiQBIOWA240276+2.7
49Chandler MorrisQBUVA398441+2.6
50Aidan ArmentaQBULM252262+2.1
51Nick MinicucciQBDEL484526+2.1
52Jacob ClarkQBMOST341424+2.1
53Braylon BraxtonQBUSM353403+2.0
54Luke AltmyerQBILL332390+2.0
55JJ KohlQBAPP216221+1.9
56Drake LindseyQBMINN361396+1.7
57Broc LowryQBWMU243273+1.6
58Parker NavarroQBOHIO288315+1.6
59Taylen GreenQBARK326341+1.5
60Behren MortonQBTTU301341+1.0
61Nicholas VattiatoQBMTSU357368+0.8
62Dru DeShieldsQBKENT240245+0.7
63Beau PribulaQBMIZ270288+0.5
64TJ FinleyQBGAST201192+0.3
65Athan KaliakmanisQBRUTG368410+0.2
66Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQBMRSH256262+0.1
67Jack LayneQBUNM302345+0.1
68Katin HouserQBECU408414+0.0
69Skyler LocklearQBUTEP211220-0.1
70Maverick McIvorQBWKU254279-0.2
71Tommy CastellanosQBFSU309318-0.3
72Marcel ReedQBTA&M338381-0.4
73Amari OdomQBKENN256299-0.6
74E.J. WarnerQBFRES255284-0.6
75Jackson ArnoldQBAUB215241-0.9
76Grayson LoftisQBCLT232252-1.0
77Blake ShapenQBMSST304326-1.4
78Preston StoneQBNU339378-1.4
79Alonza Barnett IIIQBJMU322375-1.5
80Maalik MurphyQBORST276287-1.7
81Nico IamaleavaQBUCLA323343-1.8
82Keyone JenkinsQBFIU249274-2.3
83Jake RetzlaffQBTULN356399-2.3
84Walker EgetQBSJSU393393-2.6
85Evan SimonQBTEM314309-2.6
86Noah FifitaQBARIZ386447-2.7
87AJ SwannQBAPP222228-2.9
88Miller MossQBLOU356398-3.0
89Tucker KilcreaseQBTROY199248-3.1
90Sam LeavittQBASU239253-3.1
91Ty SimpsonQBALA428496-3.3
92Rocco BechtQBISU337351-3.3
93John MateerQBOU356416-4.3
94LaNorris SellersQBSC293323-4.5
95Ben GulbransonQBSTAN260274-4.6
96Aidan ChilesQBMSU203219-4.8
97Ethan VaskoQBLIB266266-5.3
98Arch ManningQBTEX370418-5.3
99Bryce UnderwoodQBMICH293352-5.6
100Robby AshfordQBWAKE289323-5.6

More 2025 College Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Quarterback Rushing Yards Excluding Sacks NCAA Passing Efficiency QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing)

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025

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