Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2016 NFL Expected Completion % Leaders
The completion percentage an average passer would have had on these exact throws. Low numbers mean a quarterback is attempting hard, deep or contested passes.
How to read it. Read it next to completion %. A high completion % with a low expected one is the sign of real accuracy.
The 2016 leaders: Drew Brees (64.9%), Joe Flacco (64.7%), Alex Smith (64.5%).
Expected Completion %
Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 30 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | xCmp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Brees | QB | NO | 673 | 696 | 64.9% |
| 2 | Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | 672 | 707 | 64.7% |
| 3 | Alex Smith | QB | KC | 489 | 537 | 64.5% |
| 4 | Sam Bradford | QB | MIN | 552 | 596 | 64.5% |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | 594 | 653 | 64.4% |
| 6 | Case Keenum | QB | LA | 322 | 353 | 63.9% |
| 7 | Derek Carr | QB | LV | 560 | 591 | 63.6% |
| 8 | Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | 563 | 624 | 63.5% |
| 9 | Eli Manning | QB | NYG | 598 | 622 | 63.5% |
| 10 | Colin Kaepernick | QB | SF | 331 | 401 | 63.0% |
| 11 | Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | 625 | 694 | 62.9% |
| 12 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 459 | 509 | 62.7% |
| 13 | Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | 607 | 657 | 62.5% |
| 14 | Tom Brady | QB | NE | 432 | 458 | 62.4% |
| 15 | Andrew Luck | QB | IND | 545 | 624 | 62.2% |
| 16 | Brock Osweiler | QB | HOU | 510 | 550 | 62.2% |
| 17 | Philip Rivers | QB | LAC | 578 | 619 | 61.8% |
| 18 | Trevor Siemian | QB | DEN | 486 | 530 | 61.8% |
| 19 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 534 | 587 | 61.7% |
| 20 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | 509 | 526 | 61.7% |
| 21 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | MIA | 389 | 430 | 61.5% |
| 22 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 610 | 686 | 61.3% |
| 23 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 546 | 619 | 61.2% |
| 24 | Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | 606 | 635 | 61.1% |
| 25 | Marcus Mariota | QB | TEN | 451 | 494 | 60.8% |
| 26 | Carson Palmer | QB | ARI | 597 | 639 | 60.6% |
| 27 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | NYJ | 403 | 440 | 60.4% |
| 28 | Tyrod Taylor | QB | BUF | 436 | 526 | 59.8% |
| 29 | Jameis Winston | QB | TB | 567 | 630 | 58.9% |
| 30 | Cam Newton | QB | CAR | 510 | 554 | 58.8% |
More 2016 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
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QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
All Posts →Understanding the Throw.
What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
What CPOE Means, and How ACE Builds on It
Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
Read Article →Why Sacks Belong Partly to the Quarterback
A sack is the rush, the line and the decision. Why our dropback stats count them.
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