Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2016 NFL Win Probability Added Leaders
How much the quarterback's dropbacks moved his team's chance of winning, added up over the season. Late, close plays count the most.
The 2016 leaders: Matt Ryan (+4.16), Kirk Cousins (+3.91), Derek Carr (+3.75).
Win Probability Added
Counting stat: every player above zero is listed. 66 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 534 | 587 | +4.16 |
| 2 | Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | 606 | 635 | +3.91 |
| 3 | Derek Carr | QB | LV | 560 | 591 | +3.75 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | 594 | 653 | +3.55 |
| 5 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 610 | 686 | +3.55 |
| 6 | Tom Brady | QB | NE | 432 | 458 | +3.14 |
| 7 | Drew Brees | QB | NO | 673 | 696 | +3.11 |
| 8 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 459 | 509 | +2.97 |
| 9 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | 509 | 526 | +2.76 |
| 10 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 546 | 619 | +2.69 |
| 11 | Carson Palmer | QB | ARI | 597 | 639 | +1.82 |
| 12 | Alex Smith | QB | KC | 489 | 537 | +1.82 |
| 13 | Jameis Winston | QB | TB | 567 | 630 | +1.80 |
| 14 | Andrew Luck | QB | IND | 545 | 624 | +1.61 |
| 15 | Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | 563 | 624 | +1.21 |
| 16 | Robert Griffin III | QB | CLE | 147 | 182 | +1.08 |
| 17 | Sam Bradford | QB | MIN | 552 | 596 | +0.89 |
| 18 | Tyrod Taylor | QB | BUF | 436 | 526 | +0.89 |
| 19 | Marcus Mariota | QB | TEN | 451 | 494 | +0.74 |
| 20 | Landry Jones | QB | PIT | 86 | 89 | +0.71 |
| 21 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | NE | 63 | 68 | +0.69 |
| 22 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | MIA | 389 | 430 | +0.65 |
| 23 | Trevor Siemian | QB | DEN | 486 | 530 | +0.56 |
| 24 | Brian Hoyer | QB | CHI | 200 | 203 | +0.41 |
| 25 | Philip Rivers | QB | LAC | 578 | 619 | +0.31 |
| 26 | Matt Moore | QB | MIA | 87 | 87 | +0.27 |
| 27 | Trevone Boykin | QB | SEA | 18 | 19 | +0.20 |
| 28 | Shaun Hill | QB | MIN | 35 | 37 | +0.16 |
| 29 | Brock Osweiler | QB | HOU | 510 | 550 | +0.15 |
| 30 | Tony Romo | QB | DAL | 4 | 4 | +0.13 |
| 31 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 14 | 19 | +0.09 |
| 32 | Chase Daniel | QB | PHI | 1 | 1 | +0.06 |
| 33 | Cody Kessler | QB | CLE | 195 | 218 | +0.02 |
| 34 | Kevin Hogan | QB | CLE | 26 | 31 | +0.01 |
| 35 | Sean Mannion | QB | LA | 6 | 6 | +0.00 |
| 36 | Mike Glennon | QB | TB | 11 | 11 | -0.00 |
| 37 | Brett Hundley | QB | GB | 10 | 10 | -0.00 |
| 38 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | NYJ | 403 | 440 | -0.00 |
| 39 | Ryan Mallett | QB | BAL | 6 | 6 | -0.01 |
| 40 | Charlie Whitehurst | QB | CLE | 24 | 27 | -0.02 |
| 41 | Eli Manning | QB | NYG | 598 | 622 | -0.02 |
| 42 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | NE | 55 | 67 | -0.03 |
| 43 | Cardale Jones | QB | BUF | 11 | 12 | -0.03 |
| 44 | Tom Savage | QB | HOU | 73 | 80 | -0.05 |
| 45 | Matt McGloin | QB | LV | 15 | 15 | -0.06 |
| 46 | Matt Cassel | QB | TEN | 51 | 56 | -0.06 |
| 47 | Connor Cook | QB | LV | 21 | 23 | -0.06 |
| 48 | Scott Tolzien | QB | IND | 37 | 41 | -0.11 |
| 49 | Derek Anderson | QB | CAR | 53 | 54 | -0.13 |
| 50 | Nick Foles | QB | KC | 55 | 59 | -0.14 |
| 51 | Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | 607 | 657 | -0.15 |
| 52 | EJ Manuel | QB | BUF | 26 | 31 | -0.17 |
| 53 | Matt Barkley | QB | CHI | 216 | 223 | -0.21 |
| 54 | Paxton Lynch | QB | DEN | 83 | 98 | -0.25 |
| 55 | Mark Sanchez | QB | DAL | 18 | 22 | -0.31 |
| 56 | Blaine Gabbert | QB | SF | 160 | 188 | -0.37 |
| 57 | Colin Kaepernick | QB | SF | 331 | 401 | -0.45 |
| 58 | Jay Cutler | QB | CHI | 137 | 157 | -0.59 |
| 59 | Josh McCown | QB | CLE | 165 | 186 | -0.65 |
| 60 | Cam Newton | QB | CAR | 510 | 554 | -0.66 |
| 61 | Case Keenum | QB | LA | 322 | 353 | -0.67 |
| 62 | Drew Stanton | QB | ARI | 48 | 48 | -0.81 |
| 63 | Bryce Petty | QB | NYJ | 133 | 149 | -1.00 |
| 64 | Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | 672 | 707 | -1.38 |
| 65 | Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | 625 | 694 | -1.83 |
| 66 | Jared Goff | QB | LA | 205 | 233 | -2.13 |
More 2016 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
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QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
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