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2016 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2016 leaders: Matt Ryan (+43.6), Drew Brees (+40.8), Sam Bradford (+39.5).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 30 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Matt RyanQBATL534587+43.6
2Drew BreesQBNO673696+40.8
3Sam BradfordQBMIN552596+39.5
4Kirk CousinsQBWAS606635+37.7
5Aaron RodgersQBGB610686+28.6
6Dak PrescottQBDAL459509+24.3
7Ryan TannehillQBMIA389430+22.9
8Tom BradyQBNE432458+22.2
9Russell WilsonQBSEA546619+21.8
10Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT509526+16.7
11Alex SmithQBKC489537+15.0
12Jameis WinstonQBTB567630+11.1
13Tyrod TaylorQBBUF436526+8.8
14Andrew LuckQBIND545624+8.7
15Matthew StaffordQBDET594653+7.7
16Andy DaltonQBCIN563624+7.6
17Joe FlaccoQBBAL672707+5.8
18Marcus MariotaQBTEN451494+4.4
19Carson PalmerQBARI597639+4.1
20Derek CarrQBLV560591+1.5
21Carson WentzQBPHI607657+0.9
22Eli ManningQBNYG598622-2.7
23Philip RiversQBLAC578619-6.9
24Case KeenumQBLA322353-9.9
25Trevor SiemianQBDEN486530-9.9
26Colin KaepernickQBSF331401-11.9
27Brock OsweilerQBHOU510550-14.4
28Ryan FitzpatrickQBNYJ403440-15.3
29Blake BortlesQBJAX625694-25.0
30Cam NewtonQBCAR510554-28.2

More 2016 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

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