Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2021 NFL First-Down Rate per Dropback Leaders
The share of dropbacks that produced a first down or touchdown, including scrambles.
The 2021 leaders: Patrick Mahomes (38.8%), Aaron Rodgers (38.4%), Matthew Stafford (37.1%).
First-Down Rate per Dropback
Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 31 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | 1D% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 658 | 732 | 38.8% |
| 2 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 531 | 575 | 38.4% |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 601 | 639 | 37.1% |
| 4 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 672 | 738 | 37.0% |
| 5 | Tom Brady | QB | TB | 719 | 749 | 36.8% |
| 6 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | SF | 441 | 473 | 36.6% |
| 7 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 646 | 718 | 36.1% |
| 8 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 520 | 589 | 36.0% |
| 9 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 596 | 646 | 35.9% |
| 10 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | 531 | 596 | 34.6% |
| 11 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | MIA | 388 | 425 | 33.9% |
| 12 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 481 | 541 | 33.5% |
| 13 | Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 561 | 599 | 33.1% |
| 14 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 432 | 506 | 33.0% |
| 15 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 382 | 465 | 32.9% |
| 16 | Mac Jones | QB | NE | 521 | 563 | 32.7% |
| 17 | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | DEN | 426 | 472 | 32.4% |
| 18 | Derek Carr | QB | LV | 626 | 680 | 32.4% |
| 19 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 560 | 616 | 32.3% |
| 20 | Taylor Heinicke | QB | WAS | 494 | 569 | 32.0% |
| 21 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 400 | 456 | 31.8% |
| 22 | Baker Mayfield | QB | CLE | 418 | 484 | 31.2% |
| 23 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 494 | 535 | 30.8% |
| 24 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 361 | 405 | 30.4% |
| 25 | Carson Wentz | QB | IND | 516 | 574 | 30.1% |
| 26 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | 605 | 644 | 29.5% |
| 27 | Justin Fields | QB | CHI | 270 | 349 | 28.9% |
| 28 | Sam Darnold | QB | CAR | 406 | 464 | 28.4% |
| 29 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 602 | 663 | 28.2% |
| 30 | Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 394 | 433 | 27.7% |
| 31 | Zach Wilson | QB | NYJ | 383 | 442 | 26.7% |
More 2021 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
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QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
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What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
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Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
Read Article →Why Sacks Belong Partly to the Quarterback
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