Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →EPA per dropback with garbage time removed: a margin of more than 38 points in the 2nd quarter, 28 in the 3rd or 22 in the 4th. This is a split, never a replacement for the full number.
The 2021 leaders: Aaron Rodgers (+0.25), Patrick Mahomes (+0.24), Jimmy Garoppolo (+0.20).
Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 31 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | EPA/DB (no GT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 531 | 575 | +0.25 |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 658 | 732 | +0.24 |
| 3 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | SF | 441 | 473 | +0.20 |
| 4 | Tom Brady | QB | TB | 719 | 749 | +0.20 |
| 5 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 672 | 738 | +0.19 |
| 6 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 520 | 589 | +0.18 |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 601 | 639 | +0.18 |
| 8 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 596 | 646 | +0.17 |
| 9 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 646 | 718 | +0.16 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 481 | 541 | +0.15 |
| 11 | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | DEN | 426 | 472 | +0.12 |
| 12 | Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 561 | 599 | +0.12 |
| 13 | Mac Jones | QB | NE | 521 | 563 | +0.09 |
| 14 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | 531 | 596 | +0.09 |
| 15 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 382 | 465 | +0.08 |
| 16 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | MIA | 388 | 425 | +0.07 |
| 17 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 432 | 506 | +0.07 |
| 18 | Derek Carr | QB | LV | 626 | 680 | +0.07 |
| 19 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 400 | 456 | +0.06 |
| 20 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 560 | 616 | +0.03 |
| 21 | Carson Wentz | QB | IND | 516 | 574 | +0.02 |
| 22 | Baker Mayfield | QB | CLE | 418 | 484 | +0.00 |
| 23 | Taylor Heinicke | QB | WAS | 494 | 569 | -0.02 |
| 24 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 361 | 405 | -0.02 |
| 25 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 494 | 535 | -0.06 |
| 26 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | 605 | 644 | -0.07 |
| 27 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 602 | 663 | -0.08 |
| 28 | Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 394 | 433 | -0.09 |
| 29 | Sam Darnold | QB | CAR | 406 | 464 | -0.10 |
| 30 | Justin Fields | QB | CHI | 270 | 349 | -0.12 |
| 31 | Zach Wilson | QB | NYJ | 383 | 442 | -0.17 |
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
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What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
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