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2018 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2018 leaders: Drew Brees (+44.3), Matt Ryan (+38.9), Patrick Mahomes (+32.6).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 33 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Drew BreesQBNO489510+44.3
2Matt RyanQBATL608666+38.9
3Patrick MahomesQBKC580633+32.6
4Deshaun WatsonQBHOU505619+32.1
5Kirk CousinsQBMIN606660+31.7
6Carson WentzQBPHI401446+28.4
7Philip RiversQBLAC508545+22.8
8Derek CarrQBLV553605+22.2
9Russell WilsonQBSEA427499+21.8
10Ryan FitzpatrickQBTB246283+17.3
11Mitchell TrubiskyQBCHI434493+16.8
12Jameis WinstonQBTB378440+16.6
13Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT675708+16.4
14Cam NewtonQBCAR471523+15.5
15Andrew LuckQBIND639676+15.1
16Dak PrescottQBDAL526611+14.7
17Tom BradyQBNE570594+13.7
18Jared GoffQBLA561612+13.3
19Marcus MariotaQBTEN331407+12.1
20Baker MayfieldQBCLE486525+9.3
21Eli ManningQBNYG576626+8.6
22Nick MullensQBSF274288+4.8
23Ryan TannehillQBMIA274315+3.2
24Aaron RodgersQBGB597677-0.1
25Matthew StaffordQBDET555607-1.1
26Alex SmithQBWAS328369-2.4
27Joe FlaccoQBBAL379396-6.8
28Andy DaltonQBCIN365395-7.9
29Case KeenumQBDEN586630-8.8
30Sam DarnoldQBNYJ414458-17.2
31Blake BortlesQBJAX403473-18.7
32Josh AllenQBBUF319394-19.0
33Josh RosenQBARI393451-33.5

More 2018 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

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