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2026 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2026 leaders: Joe Burrow (+13.7), Brock Purdy (+9.8), Lamar Jackson (+8.4).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 33 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Joe BurrowQBCIN189204+13.7
2Brock PurdyQBSF171190+9.8
3Lamar JacksonQBBAL96111+8.4
4C.J. StroudQBHOU219237+6.3
5Matthew StaffordQBLA249260+6.3
6Josh AllenQBBUF171200+5.7
7Geno SmithQBNYJ177204+5.7
8Caleb WilliamsQBCHI91111+5.6
9Jared GoffQBDET191207+5.4
10Trevor LawrenceQBJAX184200+4.8
11Jacoby BrissettQBARI234249+4.6
12Dak PrescottQBDAL246265+4.3
13Drake MayeQBNE183214+3.4
14Jayden DanielsQBWAS116143+2.7
15Kyler MurrayQBMIN101122+1.5
16Tyler ShoughQBNO235255+1.5
17Patrick MahomesQBKC158174+1.4
18Kirk CousinsQBLV213221+1.4
19Baker MayfieldQBTB96118-0.2
20Michael Penix Jr.QBATL110122-1.4
21Deshaun WatsonQBCLE174220-2.5
22Bryce YoungQBCAR201217-3.9
23Sam DarnoldQBSEA149166-4.0
24Jordan LoveQBGB226240-5.8
25Jalon DanielsQBTB98123-5.9
26Aaron RodgersQBPIT233252-6.0
27Malik WillisQBMIA130160-7.7
28Cam WardQBTEN177199-8.2
29Daniel JonesQBIND218239-8.2
30Justin HerbertQBLAC180219-8.4
31Jameis WinstonQBNYG158178-9.9
32Jalen HurtsQBPHI154179-10.9
33Bo NixQBDEN189202-15.2

More 2026 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

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