Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →EPA per dropback in the last two minutes of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
The 2026 leaders: Josh Allen (+0.45), Caleb Williams (+0.43), Deshaun Watson (+0.39).
Minimum to rank: two db >= 2 × team games. 34 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | 2-Min EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 171 | 200 | +0.45 |
| 2 | Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 91 | 111 | +0.43 |
| 3 | Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 174 | 220 | +0.39 |
| 4 | Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 235 | 255 | +0.34 |
| 5 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 154 | 179 | +0.31 |
| 6 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 96 | 111 | +0.31 |
| 7 | Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 130 | 160 | +0.28 |
| 8 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 171 | 190 | +0.27 |
| 9 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 213 | 221 | +0.26 |
| 10 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 184 | 200 | +0.26 |
| 11 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 191 | 207 | +0.25 |
| 12 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | 183 | 214 | +0.21 |
| 13 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 249 | 260 | +0.21 |
| 14 | Tyler Huntley | QB | BAL | 72 | 85 | +0.16 |
| 15 | Jameis Winston | QB | NYG | 158 | 178 | +0.14 |
| 16 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 219 | 237 | +0.13 |
| 17 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 201 | 217 | +0.08 |
| 18 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 158 | 174 | +0.05 |
| 19 | Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | 101 | 122 | +0.02 |
| 20 | Tyson Bagent | QB | CHI | 64 | 70 | +0.02 |
| 21 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 246 | 265 | -0.00 |
| 22 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 189 | 204 | -0.06 |
| 23 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 233 | 252 | -0.10 |
| 24 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | 226 | 240 | -0.13 |
| 25 | Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 177 | 199 | -0.13 |
| 26 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | 234 | 249 | -0.15 |
| 27 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 218 | 239 | -0.18 |
| 28 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 177 | 204 | -0.22 |
| 29 | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 116 | 143 | -0.36 |
| 30 | Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | 149 | 166 | -0.42 |
| 31 | Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 96 | 118 | -0.43 |
| 32 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 189 | 202 | -0.45 |
| 33 | Jalon Daniels | QB | TB | 98 | 123 | -0.51 |
| 34 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 180 | 219 | -0.62 |
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016
What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
Read Article →A sack is the rush, the line and the decision. Why our dropback stats count them.
Read Article →Learn the break down of ten mind-body recovery tools, each backed by science, including how and when to use them to perform at your peak.