Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →EPA per dropback in the last two minutes of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
The 2020 leaders: Aaron Rodgers (+0.49), Derek Carr (+0.40), Drew Brees (+0.38).
Minimum to rank: two db >= 2 × team games. 37 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | 2-Min EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 526 | 567 | +0.49 |
| 2 | Derek Carr | QB | LV | 517 | 562 | +0.40 |
| 3 | Drew Brees | QB | NO | 390 | 403 | +0.38 |
| 4 | Baker Mayfield | QB | CLE | 486 | 532 | +0.37 |
| 5 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | 481 | 525 | +0.34 |
| 6 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 572 | 627 | +0.34 |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 588 | 649 | +0.33 |
| 8 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 558 | 657 | +0.28 |
| 9 | Tom Brady | QB | TB | 610 | 631 | +0.27 |
| 10 | Deshaun Watson | QB | HOU | 544 | 653 | +0.25 |
| 11 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 404 | 449 | +0.24 |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | 528 | 575 | +0.21 |
| 13 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 376 | 451 | +0.20 |
| 14 | Mitchell Trubisky | QB | CHI | 297 | 332 | +0.20 |
| 15 | Nick Foles | QB | CHI | 312 | 332 | +0.19 |
| 16 | Philip Rivers | QB | IND | 543 | 560 | +0.16 |
| 17 | Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | 437 | 508 | +0.14 |
| 18 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 558 | 627 | +0.14 |
| 19 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 595 | 648 | +0.10 |
| 20 | Andy Dalton | QB | DAL | 333 | 372 | +0.09 |
| 21 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | 608 | 624 | +0.07 |
| 22 | Gardner Minshew | QB | JAX | 327 | 377 | +0.04 |
| 23 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 448 | 513 | +0.02 |
| 24 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 626 | 682 | +0.01 |
| 25 | Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 516 | 569 | -0.01 |
| 26 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 222 | 239 | -0.02 |
| 27 | Drew Lock | QB | DEN | 443 | 481 | -0.02 |
| 28 | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | CAR | 492 | 558 | -0.04 |
| 29 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 148 | 184 | -0.04 |
| 30 | Nick Mullens | QB | SF | 326 | 347 | -0.04 |
| 31 | Sam Darnold | QB | NYJ | 364 | 422 | -0.07 |
| 32 | Cam Newton | QB | NE | 368 | 417 | -0.08 |
| 33 | Jared Goff | QB | LA | 552 | 595 | -0.08 |
| 34 | Dwayne Haskins | QB | WAS | 241 | 268 | -0.11 |
| 35 | Alex Smith | QB | WAS | 252 | 277 | -0.13 |
| 36 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | MIA | 267 | 295 | -0.17 |
| 37 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | SF | 140 | 155 | -0.20 |
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
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What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
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