2023 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2023 leaders: Khalil Shakir (23.0%), Kalif Raymond (15.2%), Samaje Perine (14.7%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 138 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	45	39	23.0%
2	Kalif Raymond	WR	DET	44	35	15.2%
3	Samaje Perine	RB	DEN	56	50	14.7%
4	Rachaad White	RB	TB	70	64	14.3%
5	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	90	73	14.2%
6	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	105	75	14.1%
7	Durham Smythe	TE	MIA	43	35	13.5%
8	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	45	35	13.5%
9	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	91	73	13.5%
10	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	112	81	12.8%
11	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	109	80	11.4%
12	Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	49	44	11.2%
13	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	181	135	11.0%
14	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	100	68	11.0%
15	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	121	93	10.7%
16	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	44	39	10.6%
17	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	127	95	10.3%
18	Tanner Hudson	TE	CIN	50	39	10.3%
19	Adam Thielen	WR	CAR	137	103	10.2%
20	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	102	79	10.2%
21	DJ Moore	WR	CHI	136	96	10.1%
22	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	86	75	10.1%
23	Brandin Cooks	WR	DAL	81	54	9.3%
24	James Cook	RB	BUF	54	44	9.2%
25	Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	40	34	9.1%
26	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	83	67	8.8%
27	George Kittle	TE	SF	90	65	8.6%
28	Evan Engram	TE	JAX	143	114	8.6%
29	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	171	119	8.3%
30	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	150	108	8.1%
31	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	78	60	8.1%
32	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	106	81	8.0%
33	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	90	59	8.0%
34	Luke Musgrave	TE	GB	46	34	7.8%
35	Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	40	33	7.1%
36	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	58	38	7.0%
37	Tony Pollard	RB	DAL	67	55	6.9%
38	Chig Okonkwo	TE	TEN	77	54	6.9%
39	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	108	70	6.9%
40	Jayden Reed	WR	GB	94	64	6.7%
41	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	158	106	6.6%
42	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	108	77	6.4%
43	Brian Robinson	RB	WAS	43	36	6.4%
44	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	61	45	6.4%
45	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	164	119	6.4%
46	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	GB	58	39	6.2%
47	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	145	100	6.1%
48	Noah Fant	TE	SEA	43	32	6.1%
49	Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	104	72	5.9%
50	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	120	86	5.9%
51	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	74	61	5.4%
52	Antonio Gibson	RB	WAS	59	48	5.3%
53	Darren Waller	TE	NYG	74	52	4.9%
54	Kendrick Bourne	WR	NE	55	37	4.7%
55	Tank Dell	WR	HOU	75	47	4.7%
56	Tyler Conklin	TE	NYJ	87	61	4.6%
57	Christian Kirk	WR	JAX	85	57	4.5%
58	Stefon Diggs	WR	BUF	160	107	4.5%
59	Chris Olave	WR	NO	138	87	4.5%
60	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	61	42	4.3%
61	Michael Pittman	WR	IND	156	109	4.2%
62	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	95	76	4.2%
63	Jakobi Meyers	WR	LV	106	71	4.1%
64	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	64	52	3.9%
65	Cade Otton	TE	TB	67	47	3.9%
66	Jerry Jeudy	WR	DEN	87	54	3.7%
67	Josh Reynolds	WR	DET	64	40	3.7%
68	Jonnu Smith	TE	ATL	70	50	3.5%
69	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	122	79	3.4%
70	Drake London	WR	ATL	110	69	3.4%
71	Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	73	58	3.3%
72	D'Andre Swift	RB	PHI	49	39	3.2%
73	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	79	50	2.7%
74	Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	61	38	2.7%
75	Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	58	47	2.6%
76	Josh Downs	WR	IND	98	68	2.6%
77	George Pickens	WR	PIT	106	63	2.6%
78	Allen Robinson	WR	PIT	49	34	2.4%
79	Rashid Shaheed	WR	NO	75	46	2.2%
80	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	83	59	2.1%
81	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	47	32	2.1%
82	K.J. Osborn	WR	MIN	75	48	2.1%
83	Gerald Everett	TE	LAC	70	51	2.0%
84	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	98	67	1.5%
85	Curtis Samuel	WR	WAS	91	62	1.4%
86	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	56	32	1.2%
87	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	102	71	1.1%
88	Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	96	59	1.0%
89	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	NE	65	51	1.0%
90	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	160	105	1.0%
91	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	81	45	0.8%
92	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	132	79	0.7%
93	Mike Evans	WR	TB	136	79	0.7%
94	Logan Thomas	TE	WAS	78	55	0.4%
95	Diontae Johnson	WR	PIT	87	51	0.3%
96	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	88	59	0.1%
97	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	130	83	-0.0%
98	Amari Cooper	WR	CLE	128	72	-0.1%
99	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	93	63	-0.2%
100	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	89	60	-0.4%