2016 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2016 leaders: Adam Thielen (16.4%), Terrance Williams (15.1%), Doug Baldwin (13.7%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 154 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	92	69	16.4%
2	Terrance Williams	WR	DAL	61	44	15.1%
3	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA	125	94	13.7%
4	Vernon Davis	TE	WAS	59	44	13.3%
5	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	75	59	13.2%
6	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	112	84	13.1%
7	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	121	92	12.0%
8	Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	114	79	11.8%
9	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	81	57	11.8%
10	Matt Asiata	RB	MIN	38	32	11.5%
11	Eddie Royal	WR	CHI	43	33	11.3%
12	Eli Rogers	WR	PIT	66	48	11.2%
13	Cole Beasley	WR	DAL	98	75	11.2%
14	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI	106	78	11.1%
15	LeSean McCoy	RB	BUF	57	50	11.0%
16	Jordan Reed	TE	WAS	89	66	10.9%
17	Chris Hogan	WR	NE	58	38	10.8%
18	Malcolm Mitchell	WR	NE	48	32	9.9%
19	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL	65	54	9.8%
20	Taylor Gabriel	WR	ATL	50	35	9.7%
21	Tyreek Hill	WR	KC	83	61	9.6%
22	Robert Woods	WR	BUF	76	51	9.6%
23	Mohamed Sanu	WR	ATL	81	59	9.6%
24	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	154	106	9.3%
25	Tevin Coleman	RB	ATL	40	31	9.2%
26	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	150	107	8.5%
27	DeVante Parker	WR	MIA	87	56	8.4%
28	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	129	83	8.4%
29	Dwayne Allen	TE	IND	52	35	8.4%
30	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	152	97	8.2%
31	Martellus Bennett	TE	NE	73	55	8.2%
32	Zach Miller	TE	CHI	64	47	8.1%
33	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA	131	94	8.1%
34	Brandin Cooks	WR	NO	117	78	8.0%
35	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	117	85	7.9%
36	Jimmy Graham	TE	SEA	95	65	7.5%
37	Spencer Ware	RB	KC	42	33	7.3%
38	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	MIN	70	52	7.2%
39	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	84	60	7.1%
40	Hunter Henry	TE	LAC	53	36	7.0%
41	Travis Benjamin	WR	LAC	75	47	7.0%
42	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	95	69	6.9%
43	Ty Montgomery	RB	GB	56	44	6.9%
44	Rashad Jennings	RB	NYG	42	35	6.9%
45	Cameron Meredith	WR	CHI	97	66	6.9%
46	A.J. Green	WR	CIN	100	66	6.8%
47	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	99	67	6.7%
48	Frank Gore	RB	IND	47	38	6.5%
49	Eric Ebron	TE	DET	85	61	6.4%
50	Chris Thompson	RB	WAS	62	49	6.2%
51	Le'Veon Bell	RB	PIT	94	75	6.2%
52	Steve Smith	WR	BAL	101	70	6.1%
53	Jerick McKinnon	RB	MIN	53	43	6.1%
54	DeMarco Murray	RB	TEN	67	53	6.0%
55	Anquan Boldin	WR	DET	95	67	5.8%
56	Gary Barnidge	TE	CLE	82	55	5.6%
57	Travaris Cadet	RB	NO	54	40	5.1%
58	Davante Adams	WR	GB	121	75	4.9%
59	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	81	54	4.8%
60	Lamar Miller	RB	HOU	39	31	4.8%
61	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL	40	32	4.6%
62	Rishard Matthews	WR	TEN	108	65	4.6%
63	Giovani Bernard	RB	CIN	51	39	4.5%
64	Theo Riddick	RB	DET	67	53	4.4%
65	Bilal Powell	RB	NYJ	74	58	4.1%
66	Mike Wallace	WR	BAL	116	72	4.1%
67	Golden Tate	WR	DET	135	91	4.0%
68	Charles Clay	TE	BUF	87	57	4.0%
69	Chris Conley	WR	KC	69	44	3.9%
70	Willie Snead	WR	NO	104	72	3.9%
71	Mike Evans	WR	TB	173	96	3.6%
72	Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	129	80	3.5%
73	Kyle Juszczyk	RB	BAL	49	37	3.4%
74	Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	121	86	3.4%
75	Kenny Britt	WR	LA	111	68	3.3%
76	Delanie Walker	TE	TEN	102	65	3.1%
77	Robbie Chosen	WR	NYJ	78	42	3.1%
78	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	144	90	2.8%
79	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	58	46	2.8%
80	Isaiah Crowell	RB	CLE	53	40	2.5%
81	Jesse James	TE	PIT	60	39	2.5%
82	Terrance West	RB	BAL	45	34	2.3%
83	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN	137	79	2.2%
84	Jordan Matthews	WR	PHI	117	73	2.2%
85	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	66	41	2.2%
86	Ryan Griffin	TE	HOU	74	50	2.1%
87	DeSean Jackson	WR	WAS	100	56	2.0%
88	Will Tye	TE	NYG	70	48	1.9%
89	Michael Crabtree	WR	LV	145	89	1.8%
90	Amari Cooper	WR	LV	132	83	1.6%
91	Darren Sproles	RB	PHI	71	52	1.4%
92	T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND	155	91	1.4%
93	Marqise Lee	WR	JAX	105	63	1.3%
94	Dontrelle Inman	WR	LAC	97	58	1.3%
95	Terrelle Pryor	WR	CLE	140	77	1.3%
96	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE	74	53	1.2%
97	Trey Burton	TE	PHI	60	37	1.1%
98	Richard Rodgers	TE	GB	47	30	1.1%
99	Alshon Jeffery	WR	CHI	94	52	0.8%
100	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	NYG	169	101	0.6%