2024 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2024 leaders: Mark Andrews (19.0%), George Kittle (18.7%), Cole Kmet (17.8%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 152 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	69	55	19.0%
2	George Kittle	TE	SF	94	78	18.7%
3	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	55	47	17.8%
4	Adam Thielen	WR	CAR	62	48	17.5%
5	Noah Gray	TE	KC	49	40	17.2%
6	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	78	65	17.0%
7	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	141	115	15.9%
8	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	52	42	15.6%
9	David Montgomery	RB	DET	38	36	15.5%
10	De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	87	78	13.4%
11	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	83	65	13.2%
12	Rachaad White	RB	TB	57	51	12.7%
13	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	89	68	12.7%
14	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	175	127	11.1%
15	Jayden Reed	WR	GB	75	55	11.0%
16	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	112	82	10.9%
17	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	52	47	10.7%
18	Ja'Tavion Sanders	TE	CAR	43	33	10.6%
19	Jonnu Smith	TE	MIA	111	88	10.6%
20	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	KC	80	56	10.5%
21	Foster Moreau	TE	NO	43	32	10.5%
22	Tim Patrick	WR	DET	44	33	10.5%
23	Ameer Abdullah	RB	LV	47	40	10.4%
24	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	65	54	10.3%
25	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	62	50	10.2%
26	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	117	82	10.0%
27	Jerome Ford	RB	CLE	43	37	10.0%
28	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	66	50	9.7%
29	James Cook	RB	BUF	38	32	9.6%
30	Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	46	32	9.5%
31	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	106	79	9.4%
32	Chris Olave	WR	NO	44	32	9.4%
33	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	97	67	9.3%
34	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	62	51	9.3%
35	Stefon Diggs	WR	HOU	64	47	9.1%
36	Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	52	39	8.8%
37	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	87	66	8.6%
38	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	64	50	8.6%
39	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	137	100	8.5%
40	Austin Hooper	TE	NE	59	45	8.4%
41	Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	58	42	8.1%
42	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	63	52	8.1%
43	Devaughn Vele	WR	DEN	55	41	8.0%
44	Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	53	46	7.9%
45	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	72	61	7.9%
46	J.K. Dobbins	RB	LAC	38	32	7.8%
47	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	47	38	7.8%
48	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	43	36	7.7%
49	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	100	76	7.6%
50	Tutu Atwell	WR	LA	62	42	7.4%
51	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	41	35	7.3%
52	Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	83	58	7.2%
53	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	41	33	6.9%
54	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	133	97	6.8%
55	Noah Fant	TE	SEA	64	48	6.8%
56	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	40	34	6.7%
57	Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	53	40	6.7%
58	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	109	73	6.7%
59	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	83	60	6.6%
60	Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	68	43	6.6%
61	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	147	111	6.6%
62	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	99	68	6.5%
63	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	154	103	6.3%
64	Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	113	77	6.2%
65	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	91	66	6.0%
66	Chig Okonkwo	TE	TEN	70	52	5.9%
67	Justice Hill	RB	BAL	51	42	5.8%
68	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	99	63	5.7%
69	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	74	49	5.6%
70	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	69	37	5.5%
71	Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	70	50	5.4%
72	James Conner	RB	ARI	55	47	5.2%
73	Jakobi Meyers	WR	LV	129	87	5.1%
74	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	72	45	4.9%
75	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	91	58	4.6%
76	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	43	33	4.6%
77	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	153	112	4.6%
78	Mike Evans	WR	TB	110	74	4.5%
79	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	123	81	4.5%
80	Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	72	46	4.3%
81	Greg Dortch	WR	ARI	50	37	4.0%
82	Calvin Austin III	WR	PIT	58	36	4.0%
83	Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	58	37	4.0%
84	Tank Dell	WR	HOU	81	51	3.9%
85	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	71	47	3.7%
86	Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	65	39	3.5%
87	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	52	42	3.5%
88	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	WAS	64	45	3.4%
89	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	133	87	3.4%
90	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	97	66	3.3%
91	Rico Dowdle	RB	DAL	49	39	3.3%
92	DJ Moore	WR	CHI	140	98	3.1%
93	Drake London	WR	ATL	158	100	3.1%
94	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	135	81	3.0%
95	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	ATL	87	62	3.0%
96	Jordan Akins	TE	CLE	58	40	2.9%
97	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	154	101	2.7%
98	Evan Engram	TE	JAX	64	47	2.6%
99	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	51	32	2.5%
100	Cooper Kupp	WR	LA	100	67	2.5%