2022 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2022 leaders: Will Dissly (18.4%), Richie James (16.0%), Isaiah Hodgins (15.3%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 139 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	Will Dissly	TE	SEA	38	34	18.4%
2	Richie James	WR	NYG	70	57	16.0%
3	Isaiah Hodgins	WR	NYG	48	37	15.3%
4	Devin Duvernay	WR	BAL	49	37	11.8%
5	Kalif Raymond	WR	DET	64	47	11.6%
6	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	101	78	11.5%
7	Robert Tonyan	TE	GB	67	53	10.9%
8	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	117	84	10.6%
9	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	69	55	10.5%
10	Greg Dortch	WR	ARI	64	52	10.4%
11	Cooper Kupp	WR	LA	98	75	10.4%
12	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	65	48	10.3%
13	Leonard Fournette	RB	TB	83	73	10.3%
14	Noah Fant	TE	SEA	63	50	10.1%
15	Rachaad White	RB	TB	58	50	10.0%
16	Stefon Diggs	WR	BUF	154	108	10.0%
17	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	89	66	9.8%
18	Kendrick Bourne	WR	NE	48	35	9.7%
19	David Montgomery	RB	CHI	40	34	9.7%
20	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	82	58	9.2%
21	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	184	128	8.9%
22	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	170	119	8.9%
23	Austin Ekeler	RB	LAC	127	107	7.8%
24	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	93	63	7.7%
25	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	109	74	7.6%
26	Jakobi Meyers	WR	NE	96	67	7.2%
27	Hayden Hurst	TE	CIN	68	52	7.1%
28	DeAndre Carter	WR	LAC	65	46	6.8%
29	Chig Okonkwo	TE	TEN	46	32	6.8%
30	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	69	50	6.7%
31	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	152	110	6.6%
32	David Njoku	TE	CLE	80	58	6.6%
33	Christian Watson	WR	GB	66	41	6.4%
34	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	136	95	6.4%
35	Aaron Jones	RB	GB	72	59	6.3%
36	Evan Engram	TE	JAX	98	73	6.1%
37	Josh Reynolds	WR	DET	59	38	6.0%
38	Jerry Jeudy	WR	DEN	100	67	6.0%
39	George Pickens	WR	PIT	84	52	6.0%
40	Jerick McKinnon	RB	KC	71	56	5.9%
41	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	108	85	5.9%
42	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	146	106	5.9%
43	Najee Harris	RB	PIT	53	41	5.8%
44	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	156	107	5.5%
45	Darnell Mooney	WR	CHI	61	40	5.5%
46	Antonio Gibson	RB	WAS	58	46	5.4%
47	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	120	77	5.3%
48	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	114	78	5.2%
49	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	59	41	5.0%
50	Hunter Renfrow	WR	LV	50	36	4.8%
51	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	61	40	4.8%
52	Josh Jacobs	RB	LV	64	53	4.7%
53	Kareem Hunt	RB	CLE	44	35	4.7%
54	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	50	34	4.7%
55	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	ARI	96	64	4.3%
56	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	CLE	96	61	4.2%
57	Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	117	75	4.1%
58	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	71	46	4.0%
59	Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	107	72	4.0%
60	Austin Hooper	TE	TEN	60	41	3.9%
61	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	75	60	3.9%
62	Russell Gage	WR	TB	70	51	3.8%
63	Treylon Burks	WR	TEN	54	33	3.8%
64	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	107	70	3.7%
65	Mike Evans	WR	TB	127	77	3.6%
66	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	142	104	3.6%
67	Zay Jones	WR	JAX	121	82	3.5%
68	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	BUF	65	42	3.5%
69	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	134	87	3.4%
70	Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	56	41	3.4%
71	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	41	33	3.4%
72	Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	45	35	3.3%
73	DK Metcalf	WR	SEA	141	90	3.3%
74	George Kittle	TE	SF	86	60	3.2%
75	Allen Robinson	WR	LA	52	33	3.0%
76	Chris Olave	WR	NO	119	72	3.0%
77	Amari Cooper	WR	CLE	132	78	2.9%
78	Parris Campbell	WR	IND	91	63	2.9%
79	Jahan Dotson	WR	WAS	61	35	2.8%
80	Allen Lazard	WR	GB	100	60	2.2%
81	Michael Pittman	WR	IND	141	99	2.1%
82	K.J. Osborn	WR	MIN	90	60	2.0%
83	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	88	69	1.9%
84	Jordan Akins	TE	HOU	54	37	1.8%
85	Curtis Samuel	WR	WAS	92	64	1.8%
86	Chris Moore	WR	HOU	74	48	1.4%
87	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	129	86	1.3%
88	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	98	63	1.3%
89	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	113	73	1.1%
90	Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	54	41	1.1%
91	Tyler Conklin	TE	NYJ	87	58	1.0%
92	Brandin Cooks	WR	HOU	93	57	1.0%
93	Mack Hollins	WR	LV	94	57	0.8%
94	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	65	42	0.7%
95	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	109	64	0.7%
96	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	51	38	0.6%
97	Zach Ertz	TE	ARI	69	47	0.5%
98	Rex Burkhead	RB	HOU	51	37	0.5%
99	James Conner	RB	ARI	58	46	0.5%
100	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	145	88	0.1%