College Touchdowns of the Week, Week 9: Wilson to Becker in Overtime
By QBS Blog · Published · 5 min read
On the first play of overtime in Bloomington, Grant Wilson threw 25 yards down the right side to Charlie Becker, and No. 4 Indiana had a touchdown against Minnesota. Our model gave that throw a 38% chance of being completed, and it was the highest-scoring touchdown pass in College Week 9. Indiana won 23-16.
Touchdown of the Week: Grant Wilson to Charlie Becker, 25 yards
Neither team could pull away. Minnesota kicked a career-long 60-yard field goal with 19 seconds left to go up 16-13. On the next play, Becker caught a 33-yard pass, and Paddy McAteer's own career-long 60-yard field goal tied it as time expired.
In overtime, Indiana got the ball first. Grant Wilson, who had taken over at quarterback at halftime, dropped back on first-and-10 and threw deep right for Charlie Becker in the end zone. The extra point made it 23-16, and the Indiana defense sacked Drake Lindsey on fourth down to end it at Memorial Stadium. Wilson finished 9 of 17 for 156 yards and the one touchdown. Becker had eight catches for 149 yards. The Hoosiers are 8-1 and needed overtime for the second week in a row.
Grant Wilson to Charlie Becker, 25 yards · Indiana vs. MinnesotaMoment Overtime touchdownClock at the snap OTDown and distance 1st and 10Score before TiedFinal Indiana won 23-16Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
A deep throw to the right side on first-and-10 is completed about three times in eight, per our model (38%), and all 25 yards of it were in the air. The TD Score was 17.97, the week's highest, helped by the overtime moment.
Runner-up: AJ Surace to Jourdin Houston, 80 yards, Rutgers
AJ Surace to Jourdin Houston, 80 yards · Rutgers vs. MichiganClock at the snap Q2 11:35Down and distance 3rd and 15Score before Rutgers down 11Final Michigan won 28-21Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down 11 and facing third-and-15 midway through the second quarter, AJ Surace of Rutgers threw 40 yards down the middle to Jourdin Houston, who ran 40 more for an 80-yard touchdown under a logged hurry. Our model gave that throw a 3% chance of being completed. It cut the lead to four, and Michigan won 28-21 at SHI Stadium.
Third: LaNorris Sellers to DJ Black, 84 yards, South Carolina
LaNorris Sellers to DJ Black, 84 yards · South Carolina vs. OklahomaClock at the snap Q2 9:26Down and distance 3rd and 12Score before South Carolina up 7Final South Carolina won 42-25Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
On third-and-12 in the second quarter at Norman, Sellers threw 54 yards in the air down the middle to DJ Black, who added 30 more for an 84-yard touchdown (40% completion chance). It put South Carolina up 21-7 on its way to a 42-25 win over Oklahoma.
Fourth: Noah Fifita to Isaiah Mizell, 94 yards, Arizona
Noah Fifita to Isaiah Mizell, 94 yards · Arizona vs. Texas TechClock at the snap Q2 10:12Down and distance 3rd and 12Score before Arizona down 4Final Texas Tech won 34-26Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Arizona trailed by four when Noah Fifita threw deep right on third-and-12. Isaiah Mizell caught it 40 yards downfield and ran the other 54 for a 94-yard touchdown, the longest of the week (44% completion chance). It gave Arizona a 10-7 lead; Texas Tech won 34-26 at Jones AT&T Stadium.
Fifth: LaNorris Sellers to Mazeo Bennett Jr., 79 yards, South Carolina
LaNorris Sellers to Mazeo Bennett Jr., 79 yards · South Carolina vs. OklahomaClock at the snap Q4 13:24Down and distance 3rd and 9Score before South Carolina up 19Final South Carolina won 42-25Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Sellers' second entry came in the fourth quarter, with South Carolina up 19 over Oklahoma. On third-and-9 he threw 45 yards deep left to Mazeo Bennett Jr., who ran 34 more for a 79-yard touchdown (41% completion chance). It made the score 42-16. Sellers threw three touchdown passes in the game.
The one that got away
Minnesota's overtime began with the Hoosiers' touchdown still fresh on the scoreboard. Down seven on first-and-10, Drake Lindsey threw deep left for Noah Jennings, 25 yards in the air. The pass fell incomplete; our model gave it a 38% chance, the same as Wilson's throw at the other end. Indiana then sacked Lindsey on fourth down to end the game. This note comes from the play-by-play and the AP recap of the overtime; neither describes the throw itself in more detail.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Touchdown passes
149
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards
28
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air
47
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes
4
Longest
94 yards, Noah Fifita to Isaiah Mizell (Arizona)
Most touchdown passes
Billy Edwards Jr. (North Carolina), Caden Veltkamp (Florida Atlantic) and Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State), 5 each
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, College Week 9 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice. In college, the play-by-play labels each throw short or deep instead of giving exact air yards, so the completion chance uses that label; air yards are read from the spot of the catch where the play text gives it. College numbers cover every game with an FBS team in it.
Data: CollegeFootballData.com play-by-play; completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
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