College Touchdowns of the Week, Week 8: Arch Manning Airs It Out to Ryan Wingo
By QBS Blog · Published · 5 min read
Up 10-3 on No. 7 Ole Miss early in the second quarter, Arch Manning took a hit as he threw and still put it 42 yards down the middle to Ryan Wingo, who caught it at the 8 and finished a 50-yard touchdown. The play-by-play logs a hurry on the throw, and with it our model rated the completion as one of the least likely of the week. No touchdown pass in Week 8 scored higher.
Touchdown of the Week: Arch Manning to Ryan Wingo, 50 yards
No. 19 Texas led 10-3 at home in Austin when Manning dropped back on second-and-11. He was hit as he let it go, and the ball still arrived down the middle for Wingo inside the 10. The touchdown made it 17-3, and Texas led 24-3 at halftime.
Ole Miss came all the way back to tie it at 24 early in the fourth quarter. Manning ran in the go-ahead score from the 1, and Jelani McDonald intercepted the Rebels' last pass into the end zone to finish a 34-27 Texas win.
Arch Manning to Ryan Wingo, 50 yards · Texas vs. Ole MissClock at the snap Q2 12:43Down and distance 2nd and 11Score before Texas up 7Final Texas won 34-27Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
A deep throw down the middle is hard enough; with a hurry logged on the play, our model makes it one of the least likely completions of the week. Add 42 air yards and the TD Score was 16.43, the highest of Week 8 by more than two points. It was Manning's 10th touchdown pass of the season.
Runner-up: Nate Sheppard to Brody Keefe, 28 yards, Duke
Nate Sheppard to Brody Keefe, 28 yards · Duke vs. VirginiaMoment Go-ahead touchdownClock at the snap Q4 1:20Down and distance 2nd and 8Score before Duke down 3Final Duke won 19-16Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Virginia had just gone up 16-13 at Scott Stadium. On second-and-8, Duke gave the ball to its running back, and instead of running, Nate Sheppard turned and threw 27 yards down the right side to Brody Keefe, who caught it at the 1 for the touchdown (38% completion chance). "It was well designed because they got their best player with the ball in his hands," Virginia coach Tony Elliott said. Duke won 19-16.
Third: Hank Brown to Reece Vander Zee, 37 yards, Iowa
Hank Brown to Reece Vander Zee, 37 yards · Iowa vs. MinnesotaMoment Touchdown that set up the tieClock at the snap Q4 3:51Down and distance 2nd and 9Score before Iowa down 7Final Minnesota won 13-10Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down 10-3 at Minnesota with under four minutes left, Hank Brown threw 25 yards down the middle and Reece Vander Zee carried it the last 12 for the tying touchdown (38% completion chance). It is Brown's longest touchdown pass of the season. Minnesota won 13-10 on a late 46-yard field goal, but Iowa's answer belongs on this list.
Fourth: Davis Warren to Caden High, 26 yards, Stanford
Davis Warren to Caden High, 26 yards · Stanford vs. NC StateClock at the snap Q2 0:31Down and distance 1st and 10Score before TiedFinal Stanford won 31-28Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Tied 14-14 with 31 seconds left in the first half, Davis Warren threw 25 yards down the left side under a logged hurry, and Caden High caught it at the 1 and scored. Stanford never trailed again and beat NC State 31-28. It was one of Warren's four touchdown passes, tied for the most in Week 8.
Fifth: Marcus Stokes to Jermane Hayes, 59 yards, Memphis
Marcus Stokes to Jermane Hayes, 59 yards · Memphis vs. East CarolinaClock at the snap Q3 13:42Down and distance 2nd and 9Score before Memphis down 13Final Memphis won 41-34Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down 16-3 early in the third quarter, Marcus Stokes threw 49 yards in the air down the right side, the deepest touchdown throw of Week 8, and Jermane Hayes caught it at the 10 and scored (43% completion chance). Memphis beat East Carolina 41-34 in overtime, with Stokes running in the winner. He threw three touchdown passes in the game.
The one that got away
In the second overtime at UCF, down eight, BYU faced third-and-goal. Bear Bachmeier threw for Sione Moa over the middle, and the pass was broken up in the end zone. A touchdown and a two-point try would have tied it. Our model gave the throw a 61% completion chance, and UCF won 39-31.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Touchdown passes
149
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards
28
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air
40
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes
8
Longest
76 yards, Steve Angeli to Umari Hatcher (Syracuse)
Most touchdown passes
Davis Warren (Stanford), Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State) and Dru DeShields (Kent State), 4 each
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, College Week 8 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice. In college, the play-by-play labels each throw short or deep instead of giving exact air yards, so the completion chance uses that label; air yards are read from the spot of the catch where the play text gives it. College numbers cover every game with an FBS team in it. Last week: College Touchdowns of the Week, Week 7: Duce Robinson's 75-Yard Tying Score at Miami.
Data: CollegeFootballData.com play-by-play; completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
Ashton Daniels hit Duce Robinson for 75 yards to tie No. 3 Miami with 2:49 left. Florida State lost in double overtime, but it was college Week 7's best.
