NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 7: Bryce Young Hits Darren Waller for 50
By QBS Blog · Published · 4 min read
Down 17-0 in the second quarter at home, the Panthers needed something. Bryce Young threw 31 yards down the middle, and Darren Waller ran the last 19 for a 50-yard touchdown. Our model gave that throw a 39% chance of being completed, and no touchdown pass in Week 7 scored higher.
Touchdown of the Week: Bryce Young to Darren Waller, 50 yards
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers led 17-0 in Charlotte when the Carolina Panthers got the ball back midway through the second quarter. On second-and-5, Young found Waller deep down the middle of the field, and Waller took it the rest of the way for Carolina's first points of the day. It cut the lead to 17-6.
The extra point was blocked, and Zyon McCollum returned it for two points the other way, so the drive netted Carolina four points. Tampa Bay pulled away and won 43-13. Waller's only catch of the game was the 50-yard touchdown.
Bryce Young to Darren Waller, 50 yards · Panthers vs. BuccaneersClock at the snap Q2 9:18Down and distance 2nd and 5Score before Panthers down 17Final Buccaneers won 43-13Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
A throw 31 yards downfield into the middle is completed about two times in five, and the 19 yards after the catch made it the longest touchdown in the top five. The TD Score was 11.71, more than a point clear of the runner-up. It was Young's 12th touchdown pass of the season.
Runner-up: Sam Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 28 yards, Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 28 yards · Seahawks vs. ChiefsClock at the snap Q2 1:49Down and distance 3rd and 9Score before Seahawks up 3Final Seahawks won 20-3Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Up 3-0 late in the first half, on third-and-9, Sam Darnold threw 26 yards down the left side for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (35% completion chance). He was ruled out of bounds at the 1, and the replay official reversed it to a touchdown. The Seattle Seahawks beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-3. At 28 yards, it is Darnold's longest touchdown pass of the season.
Third: Dak Prescott to George Pickens, 21 yards, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott to George Pickens, 21 yards · Cowboys vs. EaglesClock at the snap Q2 5:44Down and distance 3rd and 3Score before Cowboys down 4Final Cowboys won 38-21Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down 14-10 in Philadelphia on third-and-3, Dak Prescott put it 21 yards in the air to the right side and George Pickens caught it in the end zone (37% completion chance). It put the Dallas Cowboys ahead 17-14, and they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-21. It was one of Prescott's three touchdown passes in the game.
Fourth: Michael Penix Jr. to Drake London, 21 yards, Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. to Drake London, 21 yards · Falcons vs. 49ersMoment Fourth quarter, one-score gameClock at the snap Q4 15:00Down and distance 1st and 10Score before Falcons up 5Final Falcons won 29-20Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
On the first play of the fourth quarter, up 19-14, Michael Penix Jr. threw 19 yards down the left side to Drake London for a 21-yard touchdown (48% completion chance). It put the Atlanta Falcons up 12, and they beat the San Francisco 49ers 29-20. Penix threw three touchdown passes in Week 7.
Fifth: Kirk Cousins to Tre Tucker, 37 yards, Las Vegas Raiders
Kirk Cousins to Tre Tucker, 37 yards · Raiders vs. RamsClock at the snap Q4 15:00Down and distance 3rd and 3Score before Raiders down 22Final Rams won 35-21Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
For the second week in a row, Kirk Cousins and Tre Tucker made the list. Down 22 to open the fourth quarter, third-and-3, Cousins threw 18 yards down the left side and Tucker ran the other 19 (47% completion chance). Cousins threw another touchdown less than two minutes later, and the Los Angeles Rams beat the Las Vegas Raiders 35-21. It was Cousins' 16th touchdown pass of the season.
The one that got away
Tied 17-17 at Detroit with 3:30 left, third-and-5, Jordan Love threw 17 yards down the left side toward the end zone for Josh Jacobs on a wheel route. It fell incomplete, the Green Bay Packers' field goal try that followed was no good, and the Detroit Lions won 20-17 on a 22-yard Jake Bates field goal as time expired. Our model put the throw at a 45% completion chance.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Touchdown passes
41
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards
5
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air
4
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes
1
Longest
63 yards, Malik Willis to Caleb Douglas (Miami Dolphins)
Most touchdown passes
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals), 4
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, NFL Week 7 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice. Last week: NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 6: Geno Smith Finds Omar Cooper Jr. Deep.
Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
