NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 8: Minshew Ties It in Dallas
Down six with 10 seconds left in Arlington, Gardner Minshew threw 13 yards over the middle to Michael Wilson, and the Arizona Cardinals were tied with the Dallas Cowboys at 30. The extra point missed, but the Cardinals won 33-30 in overtime. It was the top touchdown pass of Week 8 by a hair: 13.97 on our TD Score, ahead of Drake Maye's 43-yarder at 13.78.
Touchdown of the Week: Gardner Minshew to Michael Wilson, 13 yards
The Cowboys led 30-24 and had the Arizona Cardinals down six with about a minute left and no timeouts. Gardner Minshew, who had come in for Jacoby Brissett in the third quarter, led an eight-play, 80-yard drive that took 63 seconds, with completions of 21 and 27 yards to Michael Wilson along the way. On second-and-10 from the Dallas 13, with 10 seconds on the clock, Minshew threw short over the middle and Wilson caught it in the back of the end zone, about six seconds from the end of regulation.
The extra point that would have won it was pushed wide left, so the game went to overtime. After two three-and-outs, Wilson caught a 17-yard pass to carry the Cardinals past midfield, Tyler Allgeier ran for 11 more, and Chad Ryland kicked a 42-yard field goal to win it 33-30 at AT&T Stadium. Minshew finished 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns. "Let's freaking go. Sign me up," he said of heading to overtime.
A short throw over the middle on second-and-10 is not a long shot, and our model gave it a 60% chance of being completed. What put it on top is the moment: a touchdown in the last 40 seconds that kept the game alive. Its TD Score was 13.97, just 0.19 ahead of the runner-up. The week's late go-ahead touchdown passes came from Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow.
Runner-up: Drake Maye to Kyle Williams, 43 yards, New England Patriots
Down 13-3 in Miami Gardens, Drake Maye threw 39 yards in the air down the right side to Kyle Williams (23% completion chance). The play was first ruled incomplete; the New England Patriots challenged, and the review showed Williams had crossed the goal line, so it became a 43-yard touchdown that cut the lead to 13-10. "I was a lot more certain than the officials were the first time they called it," coach Mike Vrabel said. The Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins 24-19.
Third: Joe Burrow to Mike Gesicki, 25 yards, Cincinnati Bengals
With 7:18 left and the Cincinnati Bengals down five, Joe Burrow threw deep left to Mike Gesicki for a 25-yard go-ahead touchdown (49% completion chance). It was one of Burrow's five touchdown passes against the Tennessee Titans, and the Bengals won 43-36 in overtime.
Fourth: Sam Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 43 yards, Seattle Seahawks
Down 10 with 37 seconds left in the first half, on third-and-10, Sam Darnold threw 31 yards in the air down the left side to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a 43-yard touchdown (32% completion chance). The Seattle Seahawks lost to the Chicago Bears 34-17.
Fifth: Malik Willis to Kevin Coleman Jr., 35 yards, Miami Dolphins
Trailing by 11 with 2:10 to play, Malik Willis threw 31 yards down the left side to Kevin Coleman Jr. for a 35-yard touchdown (34% completion chance). It made it 24-19, which was the final score, as the Miami Dolphins lost to the New England Patriots.
The one that got away
The New York Jets trailed the Las Vegas Raiders 38-33 after a 53-yard field goal with 31 seconds left. They took over at their own 35 with 27 seconds to go, and a 15-yard catch by Garrett Wilson plus a penalty moved them to the Las Vegas 35. With 14 seconds left, Geno Smith threw deep left toward Wilson in the end zone, 35 yards in the air, a throw our model gave a 13% chance of being completed. Jeremy Chinn intercepted it, and the Raiders held on at MetLife Stadium. A touchdown there would have put New York ahead. Smith threw two touchdown passes in the game.
The week in numbers
| Stat | This week |
|---|---|
| Touchdown passes | 43 |
| Touchdown passes of 40+ yards | 4 |
| Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air | 7 |
| Late go-ahead, tying or winning touchdown passes | 4 |
| Longest | 73 yards, Patrick Mahomes to Emmett Johnson (Kansas City Chiefs) |
| Most touchdown passes | Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals), 5 |
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
Sources
- AP via AZFamily
- Dallas Cowboys
- AP via Fox Sports
- AP via KTNV
- Play-by-play: nflverse (CC BY 4.0). The Burrow, Darnold and Willis plays are described from the play-by-play data alone.