NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 6: Geno Smith Finds Omar Cooper Jr. Deep
By QBS Blog · Published · 4 min read
Down 17-3 at halftime in New England, the Jets needed a big play. Geno Smith rolled right and threw 48 yards in the air, and rookie Omar Cooper Jr. caught it in the end zone. Our model gave that throw a 19% chance of being completed, the lowest of any touchdown in Week 6.
Touchdown of the Week: Geno Smith to Omar Cooper Jr., 48 yards
The Patriots led 17-3 at the break. Early in the third quarter, after New England failed on fourth down, the Jets took over, and two plays later Smith rolled to his right and launched it deep. Cooper ran under it and corralled it in the end zone. It was his first NFL touchdown.
Cooper explained the route afterward: "So my job is to go to and the other side, get the safety to think I'm running to the corner." He finished with six catches for 103 yards, his first 100-yard game. New York Jets cut it to 17-13 with a Jason Sanders field goal later in the quarter, but the New England Patriots won 26-19.
Geno Smith to Omar Cooper Jr., 48 yards · Jets vs. PatriotsClock at the snap Q3 10:32Down and distance 1st and 10Score before Jets down 14Final Patriots won 26-19Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
First-and-10, 48 yards from the end zone, thrown deep to the left side: that combination is completed about one time in five, which is why it outranks the longer catch-and-runs of the week. There were zero yards after the catch. It was Smith's seventh touchdown pass of the season.
Runner-up: Drake Maye to Romeo Doubs, 42 yards, New England Patriots
Drake Maye to Romeo Doubs, 42 yards · Patriots vs. JetsClock at the snap Q1 4:18Down and distance 2nd and 10Score before Patriots down 3Final Patriots won 26-19Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
The other side of the same game. On second-and-10 in the first quarter, Drake Maye put a 42-yard throw on the right side for Romeo Doubs, a 22% completion chance, and the New England Patriots went up 7-3 on the way to the 26-19 win. It was one of Maye's three touchdown passes in Week 6.
Third: Kirk Cousins to Tre Tucker, 44 yards, Las Vegas Raiders
Kirk Cousins to Tre Tucker, 44 yards · Raiders vs. BillsClock at the snap Q4 1:39Down and distance 1st and 10Score before Raiders down 10Final Bills won 33-30Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down 10 with 1:39 to play, Kirk Cousins threw 44 yards down the middle to Tre Tucker (26% completion chance). It brought the Las Vegas Raiders within three, and the Buffalo Bills held on 33-30. It was Cousins' 14th touchdown pass of the season, two of them in Week 6.
Fourth: Aaron Rodgers to Germie Bernard, 6 yards, Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers to Germie Bernard, 6 yards · Steelers vs. BuccaneersMoment Winning touchdown in the final secondsClock at the snap OT 3:20Down and distance 2nd and goalScore before TiedFinal Steelers won 26-19Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
The easiest throw on this list and the biggest moment of the week. Tied in overtime, second-and-goal from the 6, Aaron Rodgers flipped it to Germie Bernard on the right side, and he ran it in. The Pittsburgh Steelers won 26-19 in Tampa. A short throw with a 69% completion chance doesn't score many difficulty points, but overtime winners get the most for the moment.
Fifth: J.J. McCarthy to Isaiah Likely, 24 yards, New York Giants
J.J. McCarthy to Isaiah Likely, 24 yards · Giants vs. SaintsClock at the snap Q4 5:11Down and distance 2nd and 10Score before Giants down 16Final Saints won 34-27Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
J.J. McCarthy's first touchdown pass of the season came down 16 in the fourth quarter: 24 yards in the air to Isaiah Likely on the left side (41% completion chance). The New York Giants got within a score late, and the New Orleans Saints won 34-27.
The one that got away
Down 26-20 with four seconds left, the Colts had one play: fourth-and-10, and Daniel Jones let it fly 46 yards toward the end zone on the right side. It fell incomplete, and the Tennessee Titans won. Our model put that throw at a 17% completion chance, which is about what a last-play heave from that far out looks like.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Touchdown passes
40
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards
3
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air
4
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes
1
Longest
48 yards, Geno Smith to Omar Cooper Jr. (New York Jets)
Most touchdown passes
Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars), 4
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, NFL Week 6 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice. Last week: NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 5: Jordan Love to Christian Watson, Twice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
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