College Touchdowns of the Week, Week 3: Deuce Bailey Throws Through a Hurry
By QBS Blog · Published · 4 min read
Coastal Carolina's first touchdown at Delaware came on a throw the play-by-play says was made under pressure: Deuce Bailey threw 36 yards down the middle with a defender hurrying him, and Goldie Lawrence ran the last 26 for a 62-yard score.
Touchdown of the Week: Deuce Bailey to Goldie Lawrence, 62 yards
Tied 0-0 in the first quarter, second-and-6 from the Coastal 38, Bailey threw down the middle while being hurried. Lawrence caught it at the Delaware 26 and finished the 62-yard touchdown.
Bailey threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns, but Delaware won 22-14 when AJ Graham broke up a fourth-down pass at the goal line on Coastal's last drive, per AP.
Deuce Bailey to Goldie Lawrence, 62 yards · Coastal Carolina vs. DelawareClock at the snap Q1 8:01Down and distance 2nd and 6Score before TiedFinal Delaware won 22-14Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Our model put the throw at a 3% completion chance. That number is mostly the pressure: when the play-by-play logs a hurry, completions on deep throws are rare, so a completed one scores very high. (In college, the play-by-play gives a short or deep label rather than exact air yards, and the model works from that label and the logged pressure.)
Runner-up: Kalieb Osborne to Shamar Porter, 38 yards, UConn
Kalieb Osborne to Shamar Porter, 38 yards · UConn vs. Southern MissClock at the snap Q1 10:23Down and distance 3rd and 4Score before TiedFinal UConn won 48-20Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Also under a logged hurry: third-and-4, tied in the first quarter, Kalieb Osborne threw 28 yards down the middle and Shamar Porter ran in for a 38-yard touchdown (2% completion chance). The UConn beat the Southern Miss 48-20.
Third: Josh Hoover to Charlie Becker, 79 yards, Indiana
Josh Hoover to Charlie Becker, 79 yards · Indiana vs. Western KentuckyClock at the snap Q3 10:55Down and distance 1st and 10Score before Indiana up 17Final Indiana won 38-0Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Up 17 in the third quarter, Josh Hoover threw 44 yards down the middle and Charlie Becker ran the other 35 for a 79-yard touchdown (46% completion chance). The Indiana beat the Western Kentucky 38-0.
Fourth: William Watson III to T.Y. Harding, 51 yards, Massachusetts
William Watson III to T.Y. Harding, 51 yards · Massachusetts vs. StonehillClock at the snap Q4 10:58Down and distance 2nd and 5Score before Massachusetts up 22Final Massachusetts won 36-14Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Fifty yards in the air, caught at the 1: William Watson III to T.Y. Harding, a 51-yard score (40% completion chance). The Massachusetts beat the Stonehill 36-14. The pair also made the Week 2 list.
Fifth: Landyn Locke to Tim Burns Jr., 65 yards, Sam Houston
Landyn Locke to Tim Burns Jr., 65 yards · Sam Houston vs. NichollsClock at the snap Q1 11:04Down and distance 3rd and 6Score before TiedFinal Sam Houston won 59-0Completion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Tied in the first quarter, third-and-6, Landyn Locke threw 40 yards to the left side and Tim Burns Jr. ran the last 25 for a 65-yard touchdown (38% completion chance). The Sam Houston beat the Nicholls 59-0.
The one that got away
Down 16-10 with 38 seconds left, first-and-10, JJ Kohl threw for Maguire Anderson at the goal line. It fell incomplete (70% completion chance), and the Florida Atlantic won 16-10.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Touchdown passes
205
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards
32
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air
57
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes
1
Longest
80 yards, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to Kyion Grayes (California)
Most touchdown passes
Braden Atkinson (Oregon State), 6
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, College Week 3 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice. In college, the play-by-play labels each throw short or deep instead of giving exact air yards, so the completion chance uses that label; air yards are read from the spot of the catch where the play text gives it. College numbers cover every game with an FBS team in it. Last week: College Touchdowns of the Week, Week 2: Liberty's Backup Throws the Winner.
Data: CollegeFootballData.com play-by-play; completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
