NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 5: Jordan Love to Christian Watson, Twice
By QBS Blog · Published · 4 min read
Third-and-22 is supposed to be a punting down. Jordan Love threw it 53 yards in the air instead, and Christian Watson caught it in the end zone. Our model gave that throw an 18% completion chance, the lowest of any touchdown in Week 5.
Touchdown of the Week: Jordan Love to Christian Watson, 53 yards
The Packers were up seven early in the third quarter at Lambeau Field and facing third-and-22. Love dropped back and threw deep down the middle, and Watson was behind the defense when it came down.
Watson finished with six catches for 143 yards and the two long touchdowns: a 42-yarder in the first quarter and the 53-yarder in the third. Love's 367 passing yards were the most by a Packers quarterback against the Bears at Lambeau Field, per AP. "We knew what was going to be there and took advantage of it today," Watson said. The Green Bay Packers won 31-7.
Jordan Love to Christian Watson, 53 yards · Packers vs. BearsClock at the snap Q3 13:19Down and distance 3rd and 22Score before Packers up 7Final Packers won 31-7Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
On third-and-22 the defense knows a deep throw is coming, which is part of why the completion chance is so low. Zero yards after the catch: Watson caught it in the end zone. It was Love's 10th touchdown pass of the season.
Runner-up: Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington, 27 yards, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington, 27 yards · Jaguars vs. EaglesMoment Go-ahead touchdownClock at the snap Q4 3:26Down and distance 4th and 5Score before Jaguars down 4Final Jaguars won 19-17Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down 17-13 to the Eagles with 3:26 to play in London, fourth-and-5: Trevor Lawrence threw 26 yards to the right side and Parker Washington came down with it for a 27-yard touchdown (32% completion chance). The Jacksonville Jaguars won 19-17. Washington also caught a Lawrence touchdown in Week 1, so this pair has made the list twice.
Third: Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase, 45 yards, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase, 45 yards · Bengals vs. DolphinsClock at the snap Q3 0:47Down and distance 2nd and 7Score before Bengals up 11Final Bengals won 31-24Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Late in the third quarter in Miami, second-and-7, Joe Burrow threw 44 yards down the middle to Ja'Marr Chase for a 45-yard score (24% completion chance). The Cincinnati Bengals won 31-24, and Burrow threw four touchdown passes in Week 5, tied for the most.
Fourth: Jordan Love to Christian Watson, 42 yards, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love to Christian Watson, 42 yards · Packers vs. BearsClock at the snap Q1 5:57Down and distance 1st and 10Score before TiedFinal Packers won 31-7Conditions OutdoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
The first one. Tied in the first quarter, first-and-10, Jordan Love threw 42 yards to the left side and Christian Watson caught it in the end zone (24% completion chance).
Fifth: Jared Goff to Jameson Williams, 39 yards, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff to Jameson Williams, 39 yards · Lions vs. CardinalsClock at the snap Q3 9:50Down and distance 3rd and 10Score before Lions up 17Final Lions won 45-21Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Tied 27-27 in overtime, second-and-8, Jameis Winston threw 28 yards down the middle for Isaiah Likely. It fell incomplete (19% completion chance), and the game against the Washington Commanders ended in a tie.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Touchdown passes
45
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards
6
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air
9
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes
2
Longest
80 yards, Aaron Rodgers to Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Most touchdown passes
Drake Maye (New England Patriots), Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals), 4 each
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, NFL Week 5 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice. Last week: NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 4: Isaiah Williams Outruns the Bears.
Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
Geno Smith's 58-yard touchdown to Isaiah Williams, his first in 27 NFL games, was the hardest of NFL Week 4. Plus Drake Maye's go-ahead throw in Buffalo.
Ashton Daniels hit Duce Robinson for 75 yards to tie No. 3 Miami with 2:49 left. Florida State lost in double overtime, but it was college Week 7's best.
