NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 4: Isaiah Williams Outruns the Bears
By QBS Blog · Published · 4 min read
Isaiah Williams had played 26 NFL games without a touchdown. In his 27th, Geno Smith threw 38 yards down the middle at Soldier Field, and Williams ran the last 20 for a 58-yard score. Our model gave the throw a 15% completion chance, the lowest of any touchdown in Week 4.
Touchdown of the Week: Geno Smith to Isaiah Williams, 58 yards
The Jets trailed 23-6 early in the fourth quarter. On first-and-10, Smith threw deep down the middle, and Williams caught it in stride and ran away from the Chicago secondary. AP noted it was Williams' first touchdown in his 27th career game.
The score made it 23-12 with 9:16 left (the extra point was missed), and that was the final: the Chicago Bears won 23-12.
Geno Smith to Isaiah Williams, 58 yards · Jets vs. BearsClock at the snap Q4 9:25Down and distance 1st and 10Score before Jets down 17Final Bears won 23-12Conditions Outdoors, 72°F, wind 3 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
A throw 38 yards down the middle is completed about one time in seven in our model, and Williams added 20 yards after the catch. It was Smith's only touchdown pass of the week and his fifth of the season.
Runner-up: Athan Kaliakmanis to Treylon Burks, 47 yards, Washington Commanders
Athan Kaliakmanis to Treylon Burks, 47 yards · Commanders vs. ColtsClock at the snap Q3 10:47Down and distance 1st and 10Score before Commanders down 11Final Colts won 30-13Conditions Outdoors, 70°F, wind 7 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
In London, down 11 in the third quarter, Athan Kaliakmanis threw 42 yards to the left side for Treylon Burks, a 47-yard touchdown (24% completion chance). It was Kaliakmanis' first touchdown pass of the season; the Indianapolis Colts won 30-13.
Third: Drake Maye to Efton Chism III, 23 yards, New England Patriots
Drake Maye to Efton Chism III, 23 yards · Patriots vs. BillsMoment Go-ahead touchdownClock at the snap Q4 1:55Down and distance 3rd and 5Score before Patriots down 5Final Patriots won 29-26Conditions Outdoors, 69°F, wind 11 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down 26-21 in Buffalo with 1:55 left, third-and-5, Drake Maye threw 23 yards to the right side and Efton Chism III caught it in the end zone (35% completion chance). The New England Patriots won 29-26. It was one of Maye's three touchdown passes in Week 4, tied for the most.
Fourth: Bryce Young to Tetairoa McMillan, 32 yards, Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young to Tetairoa McMillan, 32 yards · Panthers vs. LionsClock at the snap Q2 8:14Down and distance 2nd and 10Score before Panthers up 1Final Panthers won 32-26Conditions Outdoors, 66°F, wind 2 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Fifth: Josh Allen to Keon Coleman, 34 yards, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen to Keon Coleman, 34 yards · Bills vs. PatriotsMoment Fourth quarter, one-score gameClock at the snap Q4 4:33Down and distance 1st and 10Score before Bills down 1Final Patriots won 29-26Conditions Outdoors, 69°F, wind 11 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
The other side of that Buffalo finish: down one with 4:33 left, Josh Allen threw 34 yards down the middle for Keon Coleman (34% completion chance), and the Buffalo Bills led 26-21. Maye answered with the go-ahead throw above.
The one that got away
Down 34-30 with nine seconds left, C.J. Stroud threw 48 yards to the right side toward the end zone. It fell incomplete (17% completion chance), and the Dallas Cowboys won. Dak Prescott had put Dallas ahead with a 12-yard touchdown to CeeDee Lamb with 43 seconds left.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Touchdown passes
43
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards
3
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air
11
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes
3
Longest
58 yards, Geno Smith to Isaiah Williams (New York Jets)
Most touchdown passes
Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers), Drake Maye (New England Patriots), Jameis Winston (New York Giants), 3 each
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, NFL Week 4 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice. Last week: NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 3: Kyler Murray Hits Jordan Addison on Third-and-8.
Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
Ashton Daniels hit Duce Robinson for 75 yards to tie No. 3 Miami with 2:49 left. Florida State lost in double overtime, but it was college Week 7's best.
