NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 3: Kyler Murray Hits Jordan Addison on Third-and-8
By QBS Blog · Published · 4 min read
Third-and-8, tied in Tampa, and Kyler Murray went deep. Jordan Addison beat one-on-one coverage on the left side and caught it in the end zone. Our model gave the throw a 9% completion chance, the lowest of any touchdown in Week 3.
Touchdown of the Week: Kyler Murray to Jordan Addison, 41 yards
The game was tied 10-10 in the second quarter. Murray dropped back on third-and-8, and with Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. rotating down, Addison was left one-on-one on the outside. He got just enough separation, and Murray dropped it in.
"I knew I had J.A. on that route," Murray said. "Obviously, I trust J.A. Hell of a player, made a great play. But, yeah, that was just, that was by design." The touchdown made it 17-10, and the Minnesota Vikings won 23-16. It was Murray's first touchdown pass of the season.
Kyler Murray to Jordan Addison, 41 yards · Vikings vs. BuccaneersClock at the snap Q2 4:17Down and distance 3rd and 8Score before TiedFinal Vikings won 23-16Conditions Outdoors, 84°F, wind 7 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Thirty-nine air yards to the sideline on third-and-8, against a defense expecting a throw past the sticks: our model completes that about one time in 11. Addison added two yards after the catch.
Runner-up: Matthew Stafford to Konata Mumpfield, 48 yards, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford to Konata Mumpfield, 48 yards · Rams vs. BroncosMoment Fourth quarter, one-score gameClock at the snap Q4 3:46Down and distance 2nd and 1Score before Rams down 4Final Broncos won 30-26Conditions Outdoors, 83°F, wind 10 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down 23-19 in Denver with 3:46 left, second-and-1, Matthew Stafford threw 30 yards to the right side and Konata Mumpfield ran the last 18 for a 48-yard touchdown (33% completion chance). It put the Los Angeles Rams ahead 26-23. The Denver Broncos answered with a touchdown with 48 seconds left and won 30-26.
Third: Joe Burrow to Tee Higgins, 28 yards, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow to Tee Higgins, 28 yards · Bengals vs. SteelersClock at the snap Q2 0:39Down and distance 1st and 10Score before Bengals down 7Final Steelers won 30-27Conditions Outdoors, 70°F, wind 12 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
With 39 seconds left in the first half in Pittsburgh, Joe Burrow threw 28 yards to the right side and Tee Higgins caught it in the end zone (16% completion chance). The Pittsburgh Steelers won 30-27.
Fourth: Geno Smith to Garrett Wilson, 23 yards, New York Jets
Geno Smith to Garrett Wilson, 23 yards · Jets vs. LionsMoment Touchdown that set up the tieClock at the snap Q4 4:11Down and distance 4th and 6Score before Jets down 8Final Lions won 31-24Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down eight in Detroit with 4:11 left, fourth-and-6: Geno Smith threw 22 yards to the right side for Garrett Wilson, a 23-yard touchdown (38% completion chance). Smith then hit Sterling Shepard for the two-point conversion to tie it. The Detroit Lions won 31-24.
Fifth: Aaron Rodgers to Roman Wilson, 38 yards, Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers to Roman Wilson, 38 yards · Steelers vs. BengalsClock at the snap Q1 13:17Down and distance 3rd and 5Score before TiedFinal Steelers won 30-27Conditions Outdoors, 70°F, wind 12 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Early in the first quarter of the same Steelers-Bengals game, third-and-5, Aaron Rodgers threw 29 yards to the left side and Roman Wilson ran the last nine for a 38-yard touchdown (32% completion chance). The Pittsburgh Steelers won 30-27.
The one that got away
Down 30-26 in Denver with two seconds left, Matthew Stafford threw 19 yards to the right side for Davante Adams at the goal line. It was intercepted in the end zone (47% completion chance), and the Denver Broncos won. Stafford had put the Rams ahead with his 48-yard touchdown to Konata Mumpfield three and a half minutes earlier.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Touchdown passes
57
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards
5
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air
11
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes
4
Longest
82 yards, Brock Purdy to Mike Evans (San Francisco 49ers)
Most touchdown passes
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers), Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks), Tyler Shough (New Orleans Saints), 4 each
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, NFL Week 3 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice. Last week: NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 2: Drew Lock and Jaxon Smith-Njigba Go 82 Yards.
Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
Ashton Daniels hit Duce Robinson for 75 yards to tie No. 3 Miami with 2:49 left. Florida State lost in double overtime, but it was college Week 7's best.
