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TOUCHDOWNS OF THE WEEK · QBS BLOG

NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 2: Drew Lock and Jaxon Smith-Njigba Go 82 Yards

On Seattle's second play of the game, Drew Lock threw 36 yards to the right side and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ran the other 46 for an 82-yard touchdown. Lock was making his first start in nearly two years, and all three of his touchdown passes went to Smith-Njigba.

Touchdown of the Week: Drew Lock to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 82 yards

Video: Jaxon Smith-Njigba all the way to the edzone (NFL on YouTube)

Lock started in place of Sam Darnold. On second-and-6 from the Seattle 18, Smith-Njigba changed his route on the fly with a quick double move, and the Cardinals' coverage broke down. Lock hit him in stride.

"It might not be the most conventional way," Lock said of the play, calling Smith-Njigba a "ballplayer" who finds ways to get open. Lock finished with 235 yards and three touchdowns, all to Smith-Njigba, who had nine catches for 155 yards. The Seattle Seahawks won 31-7.

Drew Lock to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 82-yard touchdown passSnapped from the opponent 82-yard line. Thrown 36 yards in the air to the right side, then 46 yards after the catch. Completion chance before the throw: 34%.END ZONE101020203030404050504040303020201010LINE: OWN 18JN36 YARDS IN THE AIR + 46 AFTER THE CATCHDLDREW LOCK · SEAHAWKSTOUCHDOWNCOMPLETION CHANCE 34%
Drew Lock to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 82 yards · Seahawks vs. CardinalsClock at the snap Q1 12:38Down and distance 2nd and 6Score before TiedFinal Seahawks won 31-7Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.

The throw had a 34% completion chance, and the 46 yards after the catch made it the longest touchdown pass of the week. It was the first of Lock's three touchdown passes that day.

Runner-up: Josh Allen to Josh Palmer, 43 yards, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen to Josh Palmer, 43-yard touchdown passSnapped from the opponent 43-yard line. Thrown 33 yards in the air to the middle side, then 10 yards after the catch. Completion chance before the throw: 15%.END ZONE50504040303020201010LINE: OPP 43JP33 YARDS IN THE AIR + 10 AFTER THE CATCHJAJOSH ALLEN · BILLSTOUCHDOWNCOMPLETION CHANCE 15%
Josh Allen to Josh Palmer, 43 yards · Bills vs. LionsClock at the snap Q1 3:49Down and distance 3rd and 11Score before Bills up 7Final Bills won 41-31Conditions Outdoors, 67°F, wind 4 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.

Up 7 in the first quarter, third-and-11, Josh Allen threw 33 yards down the middle and Josh Palmer ran in from there: a 43-yard touchdown with a 15% completion chance. The Buffalo Bills beat the Detroit Lions 41-31. The same pair scored the go-ahead touchdown in Houston in Week 1.

Third: Kirk Cousins to Tre Tucker, 40 yards, Las Vegas Raiders

Kirk Cousins to Tre Tucker, 40-yard touchdown passSnapped from the opponent 40-yard line. Thrown 40 yards in the air to the left side. Completion chance before the throw: 26%.END ZONE50504040303020201010LINE: OPP 40TT40 YARDS IN THE AIRKCKIRK COUSINS · RAIDERSTOUCHDOWNCOMPLETION CHANCE 26%
Kirk Cousins to Tre Tucker, 40 yards · Raiders vs. ChargersClock at the snap Q2 11:57Down and distance 1st and 10Score before TiedFinal Raiders won 26-14Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.

Tied in the second quarter, Kirk Cousins threw 40 yards to the left side and Tre Tucker caught it in the end zone (26% completion chance). The Las Vegas Raiders beat the Los Angeles Chargers 26-14.

Fourth: Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase, 32 yards, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase, 32-yard touchdown passSnapped from the opponent 32-yard line. Thrown 32 yards in the air to the right side. Completion chance before the throw: 32%.END ZONE4040303020201010LINE: OPP 32JC32 YARDS IN THE AIRJBJOE BURROW · BENGALSTOUCHDOWNCOMPLETION CHANCE 32%
Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase, 32 yards · Bengals vs. TexansClock at the snap Q2 3:37Down and distance 1st and 10Score before TiedFinal Bengals won 20-6Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.

Tied late in the second quarter in Houston, Joe Burrow threw 32 yards to the right side and Ja'Marr Chase caught it in the end zone (32% completion chance). The Cincinnati Bengals won 20-6.

Fifth: Tyler Shough to Chris Olave, 21 yards, New Orleans Saints

Tyler Shough to Chris Olave, 21-yard touchdown passSnapped from the opponent 21-yard line. Thrown 21 yards in the air to the middle side. Completion chance before the throw: 47%.END ZONE4040303020201010LINE: OPP 21CO21 YARDS IN THE AIRTSTYLER SHOUGH · SAINTSTOUCHDOWNCOMPLETION CHANCE 47%
Tyler Shough to Chris Olave, 21 yards · Saints vs. RavensMoment Touchdown that set up the tieClock at the snap Q4 9:47Down and distance 2nd and 4Score before Saints down 8Final Saints won 24-17Conditions Outdoors, 79°F, wind 10 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.

Down eight with 9:47 left, second-and-4, Tyler Shough threw 21 yards down the middle to Chris Olave for a touchdown (47% completion chance). The New Orleans Saints came back to beat the Baltimore Ravens 24-17.

The one that got away

Down 9-3 to the Vikings with six seconds left, third-and-2, Tyson Bagent threw 12 yards down the middle for Colston Loveland in the end zone. It fell incomplete (54% completion chance), and the Minnesota Vikings won 9-3.

The week in numbers

The week in numbers table
StatThis week
Touchdown passes48
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards5
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air11
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes2
Longest82 yards, Drew Lock to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks)
Most touchdown passesDak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys), Jared Goff (Detroit Lions), Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams), 4 each
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, NFL Week 211 touchdowns: Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase, 32 yards, 32 in the air; Josh Allen to Josh Palmer, 43 yards, 33 in the air; Jared Goff to Amon-Ra St. Brown, 27 yards, 21 in the air; Kirk Cousins to Tre Tucker, 40 yards, 40 in the air; Malik Willis to Ryan Miller, 77 yards, 41 in the air; Lamar Jackson to Rashod Bateman, 22 yards, 22 in the air; Tyler Shough to Chris Olave, 21 yards, 21 in the air; Jalen Hurts to DeVonta Smith, 22 yards, 22 in the air; Drew Lock to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 82 yards, 36 in the air; Marcus Mariota to Stefon Diggs, 20 yards, 20 in the air; Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb, 24 yards, 24 in the airEND ZONE20203030404050504040303020201010DLMWJAKCJBJGDPJHLJTSMM11 DEEP TOUCHDOWNS
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, NFL Week 2 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.

How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week

Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice. Last week: NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 1: Bryce Young Goes Deep to Jalen Coker.

Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.

Sources

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