NFL Touchdowns of the Week, Week 1: Bryce Young Goes Deep to Jalen Coker
By QBS Blog · Published · 4 min read
The Panthers were down 14 early in the second quarter when Bryce Young threw 43 yards to the left side and Jalen Coker took it the last eight for a 51-yard touchdown. Our model gave the throw a 22% completion chance. It was the second-longest touchdown pass of Young's career.
Touchdown of the Week: Bryce Young to Jalen Coker, 51 yards
It was a wild opener in Charlotte. The Panthers fell behind 14 points in the first quarter, and on second-and-5 early in the second, Young went deep to the left side. Coker caught it at the end of a 43-yard throw and finished the run.
The Panthers' own numbers: it was Young's second-longest touchdown pass and Coker's second-longest reception. Young threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another; Coker set career highs with eight catches, 138 yards and two touchdowns. The Chicago Bears won 59-37.
Bryce Young to Jalen Coker, 51 yards · Panthers vs. BearsClock at the snap Q2 12:49Down and distance 2nd and 5Score before Panthers down 14Final Bears won 59-37Conditions Outdoors, 89°F, wind 2 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
About one throw in four or five like this is completed in our model. It was one of Young's three touchdown passes in Week 1.
Runner-up: Josh Allen to Josh Palmer, 34 yards, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen to Josh Palmer, 34 yards · Bills vs. TexansMoment Go-ahead touchdownClock at the snap Q4 1:41Down and distance 3rd and 11Score before Bills down 1Final Bills won 36-31Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down one in Houston with 1:41 left, third-and-11: Josh Allen threw 28 yards down the middle and Josh Palmer finished it for a 34-yard touchdown (39% completion chance). The Buffalo Bills won 36-31.
Third: Carson Wentz to Justin Jefferson, 39 yards, Minnesota Vikings
Carson Wentz to Justin Jefferson, 39 yards · Vikings vs. PackersClock at the snap Q2 2:02Down and distance 1st and 10Score before Vikings down 9Final Vikings won 39-22Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Fourth: Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington, 30 yards, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington, 30 yards · Jaguars vs. BrownsClock at the snap Q1 8:18Down and distance 3rd and 7Score before TiedFinal Jaguars won 34-10Conditions Outdoors, 89°F, wind 3 mphCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Tied in the first quarter, third-and-7: Trevor Lawrence threw 29 yards to the right side and Parker Washington caught it at the goal line for a 30-yard score. Our model gave that throw a 13% completion chance, the lowest of any top-five touchdown this week. Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, the most in Week 1, and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Cleveland Browns 34-10.
Fifth: Brock Purdy to Demarcus Robinson, 39 yards, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy to Demarcus Robinson, 39 yards · 49ers vs. RamsClock at the snap Q2 4:35Down and distance 2nd and 6Score before 49ers down 4Final 49ers won 27-7Conditions IndoorsCompletion chance from air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather (the model behind ACE). Play-by-play gives the throw's lane and air yards, not the exact spot, so the catch is drawn in the middle of its lane.
Down 13-10 with 26 seconds left, third-and-5, Tyler Shough threw 16 yards to the right side for Juwan Johnson. It was intercepted (60% completion chance), and the Detroit Lions won 13-10.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Touchdown passes
53
Touchdown passes of 40+ yards
7
Touchdown passes thrown 20+ yards in the air
9
Late go-ahead or winning touchdown passes
2
Longest
81 yards, Jordan Love to Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers)
Most touchdown passes
Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars), 4
Every touchdown pass thrown 20+ yards in the air, NFL Week 1 Where it was caught Line of scrimmageEach line runs from the line of scrimmage to the catch, in the lane the play-by-play gives (left, middle or right of the passer). The end zone is on the right.
How we pick the Touchdowns of the Week
Every touchdown pass gets a TD Score: how unlikely the completion was (one minus the completion chance, times 10), plus 0.1 for each yard the ball travelled in the air and 0.05 for each yard of the touchdown, plus the moment: 8 for a winning touchdown in the final 40 seconds or overtime, 4 for any other fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown, 3 for one that set up the tie, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime touchdown in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on throws with a completion chance of 60% or less and shrinks on easy ones. Touchdowns in garbage time (a margin over 22 points in the fourth quarter, over 28 in the third) count in the week's numbers but not in the top five. Completion chances come from the same model behind ACE (air yards, lane, down, distance, field position, pressure and weather). A quarterback can appear at most twice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); completion chances, TD Scores and ACE by QuarterbackStats.com.
Ashton Daniels hit Duce Robinson for 75 yards to tie No. 3 Miami with 2:49 left. Florida State lost in double overtime, but it was college Week 7's best.
